Kevin Drum 🕸

I took my sister to the hospital yesterday to get her broken arm patched up, and naturally we had to check in at 5:30 am because reasons. After she was settled in I had a few hours to kill, so I drove down to Seal Beach to take pictures of the moonset and sunrise. When ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

The Producer Price Index is an hors d'oeuvre served the day before the latest CPI print is released. It measures inflation in the inputs to the production of goods. In December the PPI came in at 2.7%: Over the past two years the PPI has averaged 2.21%, almost exactly the same as Trump's pre-pandemic average ...continue reading "December PPI clocks in at 2.7%"

Yuval Levin talks responds to reports that DOGE will be helmed by billionaire tech executives: The case for the DOGE, as it is taking shape, is basically a case for elite expertise dressed up as a case against bureaucracy. And as such, it is remarkably unconcerned with the challenges of legitimacy that are so central ...continue reading "DOGE is just a billionaires’ playground"

This is just a periodic reminder that Elon Musk spent months desperately trying not to buy Twitter, and only did so because eventually it became obvious that a judge would force him to make good on the cockamamie contract he signed with the Twitter board in a short-lived fit of hubris.¹ So when you hear ...continue reading "The real reason Elon Musk bought Twitter"

AccuWeather has upped their cost estimate yet again for the LA fires. We're now at $250 billion.

I've been curious off and on about the story of how Silicon Valley turned against Democrats over the past few years. Jeremiah Johnson describes it as the fault of Democrats who broke an implied bargain: The big concern that emerged in 2016 was misinformation in the form of fake news.... When Donald Trump won, Facebook ...continue reading "Why has Silicon Valley turned against Democrats?"

Some top notch work here from the Irvine Department of Public Works. This is actually even weirder than it looks. These signs are placed outside a street that exits a neighborhood and dead ends. You always have to turn either left or right regardless of what's going on. Also, nothing is closed down. There's no ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

The New York Times reports today that childhood vaccination rates have dropped in the post-COVID era. That's true, but the news is both better and worse than they suggest: The news is better because the Times chart has a short y-axis that exaggerates the reported decline of 2-3 percentage points. But the news is worse ...continue reading "Vaccine coverage for kids is falling off"

The list of Trump walkbacks so far: Grocery prices aren't going to come down after all. Tariffs might raise prices. Hard to say. Maybe the tariffs won't be for everyone. We probably aren't going to deport everyone either. And we're not going to pardon all of the J6 insurrectionists. That last one is brand new ...continue reading "Vance says no pardons for J6ers convicted of violence"

Here is the Pacific Palisades fire a few minutes after it started: Here it is about an hour later. This is what 60-80 mph winds funneled through a canyon will do.

Jon Sindreu notes that long-term bond rates have surged higher over the past month: What accounts for this? Some analysts attribute this to the possibility of Donald Trump’s promised tariffs derailing the global economy and leading to a jump in inflation, while his tax cuts bloat budget deficits further.... The S&P 500 and the Stoxx ...continue reading "Everyone is nervous about Trump"

I continue to be oddly fascinated by the Economic Uncertainty Index. Apparently we not only remain uncertain, we're getting more uncertain as Inauguration Day approaches: Uncertainty has been shooting up in January as Trump blathers on about Greenland and the Panama Canal. Add in tax cuts, tariffs, and Republican infighting over the budget and I ...continue reading "Economic uncertainty remains sky high"

Prescribed fires—or the lack of them—are on everybody's lip these days. Most people are just parroting talking points for political purposes, but perhaps you'd actually like to be a little smarter about it? Sure you would. It's a weekend and you have some spare time. So let's go through some history and then some current ...continue reading "Why don’t we do more prescribed burning? An explainer."

Here's the latest outrage about California: Jillian Michaels Sounds Off on the Leadership Failures in California "It's absolute madness ... In 2014, Californians voted on Proposition 1 to put billions towards building new reservoirs. Not one is complete 10 years later ... How many homes need to be lost? ... None of this… pic.twitter.com/a4fKEkqjP0 — ...continue reading "California’s reservoirs have nothing to do with LA’s fires"

AccuWeather has updated their estimate of the damage from the LA fires to $150 billion. Here's what the league table looks like now: The AccuWeather estimate increased from $55 billion to $150 billion in one day.

Republicans need to figure out a way to fund their giant tax cut for the rich, and in a huge surprise their answer turns out to be benefit cuts for the poor. But check out how they're trying to frame it: STRENGTHEN MEDICARE FOR SENIORS MAKING MEDICAID WORK FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE REIMAGINING THE AFFORDABLE ...continue reading "Republicans officially unveil their plan: tax cuts for the rich paid for by the poor"

The folks at the University of Michigan who do the monthly Survey of Consumer Sentiment have a whole bunch of interesting stuff they released yesterday. First up, as soon as Donald Trump was elected uncertainty over inflation surged upward: At the same time, as talk of tariffs ramped up, a lot of people decided it ...continue reading "Donald Trump’s election hasn’t been great for the economy"

For God's sake, can we stop this nonsense? People gobsmacked by empty fire hydrants in Pacific Palisades have wondered, why not just stick a hose in the ocean? Well, salt water can be very damaging to equipment (including firefighting machinery) and all sorts of other things as well, so the Pacific's bounty can only be ...continue reading "Just give it up. There’s no one to blame for the LA fires."

Where's Charlie?

The New York Times reports today that the world has officially warmed by more than 1.5°C. This is based on the Copernicus ERA5 estimate for 2024, which I'm unable to confirm because the Copernicus folks won't let me download their annual data unless I register with a 12-character password—which I did—and then respond to an ...continue reading "Climate change is very close to its 1.5°C flashing red light level"