a Better Bubbleโ„ข

Kevin Drum ๐Ÿ•ธ

A brief summary of Donald Trumpโ€™s plan for America

2 hours 2 minutes ago
Here is Donald Trump's apparent governing plan so far: Enact 20% tariffs on all imports.¹ Cut $2 trillion from the federal budget.² Let RFK Jr. "go wild" on health, food, and medicine.³ Mass deportation of illegal immigrants.¹ ² Big tax cuts for corporations and the rich.¹ Abandon Ukraine. Maybe Taiwan too.4 Use the military to ...continue reading "A brief summary of Donald Trump’s plan for America"
Kevin Drum

Israel decides to cut off aid to Gaza

6 hours 19 minutes ago
In an apparent attempt to lose whatever international support they still retain, Israel voted overwhelmingly yesterday to kick out UNRWA from Gaza. UNRWA distributes the vast majority of aid to Gaza, and no other organization has the know-how and the personnel to take its place. They're indispensable. But everybody's most loathed prime minister just shrugged: ...continue reading "Israel decides to cut off aid to Gaza"
Kevin Drum

Hereโ€™s the boring truth: Crime is neither up nor down

8 hours 26 minutes ago
Paul Krugman put up this Gallup chart today with the comment "Crime is way down; Ds are right": In reality, this chart shows that nobody is right. Here's the actual crime trend since the start of the century: Violent crime dropped steadily through 2012 and has been flat ever since. Property crime dropped through 2020 ...continue reading "Here’s the boring truth: Crime is neither up nor down"
Kevin Drum

Mortgage rates have spiked up to 7%. Itโ€™s a warning from Wall Street.

9 hours 30 minutes ago
Despite the Fed's September rate cut, along with promises of more, 30-year mortgage rates began rising abruptly in early October and spiked above 7% today: What’s going on? Mark Zandi explains: First, the strong economy is even stronger than anticipated, causing investors to re-think how quickly the Fed will cut rates. Equally important is investors’ ...continue reading "Mortgage rates have spiked up to 7%. It’s a warning from Wall Street."
Kevin Drum

Final GDP forecast: 2.8%

9 hours 59 minutes ago
The Atlanta Fed has published its final forecast of third-quarter GDP before the official numbers are released tomorrow. Following a disappointing export report this morning, their model now projects a Q3 growth rate of 2.8%.
Kevin Drum

Lunchtime Photo

10 hours 56 minutes ago
This is Schönlaterngasse in Vienna ("Street of the Beautiful Lantern") near the Jesuit church and the Gutenberg monument. The Truth and Dare bar is up ahead, and it was a nice night so people were congregating outside.
Kevin Drum

The wages of the white working class

1 day 4 hours ago
The white working class has been trending Republican for a long time, but Donald Trump seems to be doing especially well with them this year—and especially among men. Why? A bunch of reasons, but this is probably one of them:
Kevin Drum

Raw data: US crude oil imports from OPEC

1 day 8 hours ago
The US is energy independent, but for economic and strategic reasons we continue to import a moderate amount of crude oil. Most of it comes from Canada, followed by Mexico. Here are imports from OPEC, nearly all of it from Saudi Arabia these days.
Kevin Drum

CES says Kamala Harris is comfortably in the lead

1 day 10 hours ago
The 2024 CES pre-election survey, based on a huge sample of nearly 80,000 adults, puts Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump 51-47% among likely voters. She's ahead 52-46% among very likely voters. Here's their breakdown by age and gender: Harris is tied or ahead with every single group except one: old men, where she's behind ...continue reading "CES says Kamala Harris is comfortably in the lead"
Kevin Drum

Lunchtime Photo

1 day 10 hours ago
For the past week I've had a houseguest, an old friend who inherited a big pile of old tickets to Disneyland a few years ago. So on Thursday that's where we went. This was a mistake. The day before I walked around for an hour and felt fine. I took this to mean that plain ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"
Kevin Drum

MSG report #4

2 days 3 hours ago
Naturally Donald Trump himself gets the final MSG post. But it's not for any single thing he said, since he just repeated all his greatest hits from the past. Instead, it's for his full body of work. CNN cuts away from Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally to fact check him: “We are hearing scores of ...continue reading "MSG report #4"
Kevin Drum

MSG report #3

2 days 4 hours ago
Elon gets a whole post to himself. Not because he said something racist, but because he said something so massively dumb. 🚨ELON MUSK: "I think we can rip out at least 2T out of the wasted 6.5T Harris/Biden budget. All government spending is taxation. Your money is being wasted and the DEPARTMENT OF GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY ...continue reading "MSG report #3"
Kevin Drum

MSG report #2

2 days 4 hours ago
Apologies for dropping the ball on this. I had to make an urgent IT house call on my mother, so I spent the afternoon in Garden Grove. But it's not too late to catch up now with Donald Trump's racism fest at Madison Square Garden. "America is for Americans and Americans only" -- Stephen Miller ...continue reading "MSG report #2"
Kevin Drum