a Better Bubbleโ„ข

Kevin Drum ๐Ÿ•ธ

BREAKING: Unbelievably trivial story somehow becomes national news

2 days 5 hours ago
From the Washington Post: Florida parents upset by Michelangelo’s ‘David’ force out principal This story is all over the place. Why? A tiny charter school in Tallahassee fired its principal over some dumb thing. How does this become widespread national news? For what it's worth, the Post's headline is typical even though the chair of ...continue reading "BREAKING: Unbelievably trivial story somehow becomes national news"
Kevin Drum

Total factor productivity dropped 1.2% last year

2 days 6 hours ago
Total factor productivity is productivity growth after you've accounted for labor and capital. Roughly speaking, it's the share of productivity growth due to technological improvements: TFP took a big jump in 2021 but then dropped in 2022. It is now back to its (sort of lousy) recent trendline.
Kevin Drum

Raw data: Bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve

2 days 6 hours ago
Here's how much banks have borrowed from the Fed this month: During the Great Recession, this number peaked at around $400 billion in October 2008. That's the highest it's been over the past 40 years. We're nowhere near that, but March 2023 is still in a strong second place.
Kevin Drum

Contrary to popular opinion, my brain is just fine

2 days 20 hours ago
Here are the results of my brain MRI: FINDINGS: Study is limited due to motion artifact. Small punctate T2 high signal changes 5 mm in the deep white matter region right frontal lobe, nonspecific, likely of small vessel ischemic changes. There is no evidence for intraparenchymal hemorrhage, midline shift or mass effect. No evidence for ...continue reading "Contrary to popular opinion, my brain is just fine"
Kevin Drum

How satisfied are trans people after their transition?

3 days 1 hour ago
How satisfied are trans people with their transition? Here's part of an answer from a large-scale Washington Post poll of trans people: Unfortunately, the poll doesn't dig down on this question. Of the trans people who are less satisfied, is this because they think they made a bad choice or because they didn't realize how ...continue reading "How satisfied are trans people after their transition?"
Kevin Drum

How about if we indict Donald Trump for something serious?

3 days 2 hours ago
I would really like to see Donald Trump indicted over his efforts to overturn the election results in Georgia. The problem is that it would be a tough case since Trump was savvy enough to avoid saying outright, "Hey, just invent the extra votes I need." Still, everyone knows that's exactly what he meant, and ...continue reading "How about if we indict Donald Trump for something serious?"
Kevin Drum

Lunchtime Photo

3 days 4 hours ago
This is sunset over the Sheephole Mountains, very near to the spot in the desert where I do my astrophotography. It's a Bortle 2 area, which means it's very nearly the darkest possible area for stargazing. That compares to Bortle 8-9 in my backyard. Bortle 1 is the darkest sky possible. Death Valley is Bortle ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"
Kevin Drum

Rainbow!

4 days 20 hours ago
Very pretty rainbow(s) over our house to end the day. I guess that's one good thing about endless rainshowers.
Kevin Drum

Raw data: Murders are down 10% so far in 2023

4 days 22 hours ago
According to Datalytics, here's how things look on the homicide front so far in 2023: Down 10% so far! And that's on top of last year's 5% decline. This isn't enough to make up for the 30% increase during the pandemic, but we're getting there.
Kevin Drum

Thereโ€™s a 50-50 chance of a Fed rate hike tomorrow

4 days 22 hours ago
Is the Fed going to raise rates tomorrow? According to the Atlanta Fed's prediction tool, the answer is maybe: Before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the probability of a rate hike was 97%, a virtual certainty. After the collapse, that probability dropped to 40% and currently stands at 55%. Place your bets. POSTSCRIPT: Needless ...continue reading "There’s a 50-50 chance of a Fed rate hike tomorrow"
Kevin Drum