Kevin Drum 🕸

We're nearly done with 2024 economic statistics. There are just a few stragglers left. Here is labor productivity for Q4: The trendline allows you to see periods when productivity lagged or grew more than average. The past couple of years have been slightly above trend, though you have to squint a bit to see it. ...continue reading "Productivity up 1.2% in final quarter of 2024"

Donald Trump tweeted this on August 22, 2018: I have asked Secretary of State @SecPompeo to closely study the South Africa land and farm seizures and expropriations and the large scale killing of farmers. “South African Government is now seizing land from white farmers.” @TuckerCarlson @FoxNews — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 23, 2018 What's ...continue reading "Donald Trump is very concerned about South Africa’s white people"

So far, Donald Trump has targeted the following federal agencies for sweeping layoffs: USAID National Park Service CIA FBI National Science Foundation NOAA? The FBI is straight-up revenge. NOAA appears to be motivated by a belief that if you get rid of the agency that monitors climate change, then climate change will cease to exist. ...continue reading "The Trump layoffs are a charade"

This is a nice, fat seagull hanging out at the Seal Beach pier at sunrise, with the Long Beach skyline in the background.

The rental vacancy rate at the end of 2024 was 6.9%: The rental vacancy rate is generally considered a good proxy for the tightness of the housing market. It went steadily down from 2016-22, suggesting that we were building too little housing and people were having a hard time finding a place to live. But ...continue reading "Finding an apartment is getting easier"

I know it's pointless to ask, but . . . Aside from everything else, why does Donald Trump want Gaza? What possible use is it to the United States? Am I missing something obvious here?

Since water is in the news, here's a picture of the Hinds Pumping Station in Riverside County. But it has nothing to do with water from the north. It feeds the Colorado River Aqueduct, which begins about a hundred miles east at Lake Havasu. Here in Southern California, we steal our water from a great ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

The single weirdest thing Elon Musk has done is to take control of the Treasury's payment system. What's the point? Every dollar the federal government spends goes through a bunch of steps to make sure it's legitimate, approved, and due for payment. After that's all done, Treasury cuts the checks. It's a purely mechanical process. ...continue reading "Elon Musk is building a report writer"

More slop from the loon: That group has been deleted https://t.co/TICeriaLlA — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 3, 2025 What group has been "deleted"? First, some background. 18F (short for 18th and F) is a small group within the General Services Administration that helps other agencies roll out tech projects. They have a reputation for being ...continue reading "Did Elon Musk kill DirectFile?"

The ongoing saga of USAID is the damnedest story: “In many cases USAID is involved in programs that run counter to what we’re trying to do in our national strategy with that country or with that region,” [Marco] Rubio told reporters in El Salvador’s capital. “That cannot continue.” ....America’s new chief diplomat also accused USAID ...continue reading "What in God’s name is the deal with USAID?"

This is a street in the Dorotheum, a section of old Vienna full of antique stores and miscellaneous little shops. We found a lovely 19th-century fashion print plate here for my sister, a collector of 19th-century fashion prints plates.

Wondering what tariffs might do to you? Here's what happened to washing machines and dryers after Trump tariffed them in 2018: Three years later they were 20% more expensive instead of continuing a trend that would have made them 20% less expensive. Now multiply that by everything and you'll get a sense of what Trump's ...continue reading "Raw data: How tariffs blew up the price of washing machines seven years ago"

As soon as he took office President Trump shut down all foreign aid for 90 days. A week later, USAID, our primary aid agency, caught his eye. Allegedly, "several actions" within the agency "appear to be designed to circumvent the President’s Executive Orders," so Trump immediately ordered 56 people placed on leave. What accounted for ...continue reading "Here’s how USAID ended up in Trump’s crosshairs"

Does Elon Musk even bother reading this shit before reposts it? The @DOGE team is rapidly shutting down these illegal payments https://t.co/GabhBL7gxf — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 2, 2025 Crackpot Gen. Mike Flynn seems to have searched for all grants to any organization with Lutheran in its name and declared them all corrupt. What does ...continue reading "Elon says he’ll shut down all payments to Lutheran charities"

I'm not especially worried about Trump steamrolling democracy, but if he does it will be down to one thing: The Republican Party rolling over and playing dead for anything Trump does. Pardoning all the J6 insurrectionists? Meh. Shutting down the NIH? Yawn. Huge tariffs on two of our most steadfast allies and neighbors? Whaddayagonnado? Firing ...continue reading "Where’s the Republican Party?"

What's the end game here? the craziest thing is that it’s not even very clear what Trump wants to happen. the fentanyl thing is obviously an excuse, the flow of Canadian fentanyl into the US is insignificant. so what does he want https://t.co/3ijwJUa0xr — Armand Domalewski (@ArmandDoma) February 2, 2025 Trump doesn't want anything. He ...continue reading "What does Trump really want?"

Donald Trump says he pulled out of the World Health Organization because it's unfair to the US. We pay dues of $500 million per year while China pays only $39 million. Bob Somerby wants a fact check. Sure, why not. WHO works on a two-year budgeting cycle, so I've cut the numbers in half to ...continue reading "Fact check: How much does the US contribute to WHO?"

In order to blow off our free trade pact with Canada and Mexico, Donald Trump has to find some kind of national security pretext. That's the loophole. This is why he's been so careful to stick to the script that it's all about fentanyl and illegal immigrants. This is ridiculous, but it's especially super duper ...continue reading "Canada is not a national security threat"

From a public health perspective, the benefit of vaping comes from cigarette smokers who use vaping as a way of quitting cigarettes. How many people does this include? It turns out that about 1.8% of adults are vapers who used to smoke. So not a lot but not nothing. A new study tries to quantify ...continue reading "Has vaping reduced deaths from smoking?"

LA's wildfires may have been devastating, but the spirit of cooperation among Angelenos in the aftermath has been pretty inspiring. Everyone across the city is willing to help their neighbors in need and lock hands in a spirit of— Oh wait: Hundreds of San Gabriel Valley residents confronted state and federal officials during a heated ...continue reading "After the fires, a city comes together"