Kevin Drum 🕸

In a word, no. Even at the very beginning of the pandemic, the CDC said only that schools might want to close depending on local transmission rates and known outbreaks—but even then said there was little evidence it helped more generally. After that they became positively evangelistic in their recommendations for schools to stay open ...continue reading "Did the CDC recommend school closures?"

The top chart shows total public K-12 spending as a percent of GDP. The bottom chart is the same for per-pupil spending. For this one I used the share per billion dollars of GDP to avoid a big mess of decimal places.

Here's an interesting thing. It starts with a typical outraged Twitter post: Now suck in your gut and read this very long—but fascinating!—reply from Greg Koenig about why bolts like this cost so much and are worth every penny: Fun fact. In the outskirts of Portland is a nice little shop in an anonymous industrial ...continue reading "The case of the Pentagon’s $45 bolt"

I have a post all teed up about Why Kamala Lost, but I can't quite pull the trigger on publishing it. Here's why: This is not the Democratic (popular vote) winning margin each year. It's the change from the previous election. For example, Joe Biden won by 4.5% in 2020 and Kamala Harris lost by ...continue reading "Why Kamala lost: A confession"

Ezra Klein has a long interview today about governance with Steve Teles and Jennifer Pahlka. The gist is that our government bureaucracies really are terrible and liberals are in denial about the need for massive reform. It left me with many thoughts because I think, overall, it hit the wrong targets. It's hard to adopt ...continue reading "A (sort of) defense of bureaucracy"

The New York Times reports today that the CDC reports that drug overdose deaths have plummeted recently. Sure enough, they have: The Times article provides a bevy of possible reasons for the decline, but I have my own theory. One of the most consistent findings of drug research is that drug use is faddish. In ...continue reading "Raw data: Fentanyl overdoses have dropped dramatically"

How do people feel financially? Do they feel worse than headline indicators like unemployment, inflation, and growth suggest they should? This is all but impossible to answer. If you look at personal finance figures, you'll see that people are earning more than they used to and also spending more. But how do they feel after ...continue reading "Our economic quandary: Should we pay more attention to vibes or data?"

Oh come on. Donald Trump finally nominated a Black guy for his cabinet, and just like last time it's for Housing and Urban Development. This would be no big deal for a president who nominated other Black cabinet members too. But your only one? Once could be a coincidence. Twice, not so much. The question ...continue reading "Yet another Black guy is running HUD for Trump"

The revenge president is at it again. But the weird part of this story is that there's no real revenge to be had: The US general who was photographed as the last American soldier to leave Afghanistan is seeing a promotion blocked by a sole Republican senator, multiple outlets reported. ....The senator reportedly placing a ...continue reading "Trump blocks promotion of Afghanistan general"

Be still my heart: President-elect Donald Trump plans to fire the entire team that worked with special counsel Jack Smith to pursue two federal prosecutions against the former president, including career attorneys typically protected from political retribution, according to two individuals close to Trump’s transition. Trump is also planning to assemble investigative teams within the ...continue reading "All Trump’s demons are being set loose"

I just got back from a bit of shopping at our local Albertson's. I haven't been to this particular store in a while, and I noticed that in my absence they had joined the crowd and put loads of stuff behind locked cabinets. This led to the following conversation while I was checking out: ME: ...continue reading "Supermarkets and shoplifting: A brief conversation"

I'm completely fed up with Google. They took away my ability to get more than ten hits per page, and there's now so much damn cruft on the results page (AI, ads, shopping, videos, etc. etc.) that it often has only six or seven actual site links. It's maddening because I often have to go ...continue reading "I’m done with Google search"

Here is Hilbert lounging on the top of the sofa. He doesn't do this much anymore because there's a red blanket (courtesy of American Airlines) on the sofa at the moment and both he and Charlie adore it. Every time I come into the living room they've switched off and a new cat is curled ...continue reading "Friday Cat Blogging – 22 November 2024"

The New York Times reports today on a new study that shows an increase in alcohol-related deaths between 1999 and 2020. But it's based on numbers from the CDC's WONDER database, which is public and has a category just for alcohol. Here it is: Sure enough, it's way up. Check the right boxes and you ...continue reading "Yep, alcohol deaths are way up"

Are you on Twitter and would like to follow reliable economic commentary? Here are my top picks: Matt Darling Noah Smith Matt Yglesias Dean Baker There are lots of good people on Twitter who don't say much about economics. And there are lots of good economists who don't say much on Twitter. But these four ...continue reading "My econ picks on Twitter"

A reader has shamed me into updating yesterday's chart showing how often Fox News mentioned inflation after the election was over. Here's a comparison with all TV news: The drop at Fox News was more dramatic than most, but in fact everyone decided to stop talking about inflation once the election was over. (The mid-month ...continue reading "Another look at inflation and Fox News"

The Michigan index of consumer expectations (not current consumer sentiment) is doing its usual thing in the wake of the election: As usual, Republicans are considerably more partisan about the economy than Democrats. After Joe Biden's election their expectations dropped about 75 points while Democratic expectations rose 30 points. This time around Republican expectations are ...continue reading "Republican economic optimism is skyrocketing already"

I'm not trying to be the bearer of bad news, but it strikes me that several economic indicators are blinking red right now. The yield curve has been negative for a while and has just turned upward. GDP growth has been above potential for several quarters in a row. Job growth has been slowing down ...continue reading "A recession is probably in our near future"

With Matt Gaetz out of the picture, Donald Trump has moved quickly to refill the attorney general job. His choice is Pam Bondi, the telegenic former attorney general of Florida and frequent Fox News guest host. Bondi is a big time Trump loyalist these days, but it hasn't always been so. Remember when Trump had ...continue reading "Pam Bondi, Trump’s $25,000 friend, is his new AG choice"

Guess what? Inflation is over! According to Fox News, anyway: Inflation itself hasn't changed over the past couple of weeks, but for some reason Fox News doesn't seem to care about it anymore. Here's a longer look: Sadly, the Internet Archive suffered some technical difficulties right before the election, so the series is interrupted. But ...continue reading "Fox News declares inflation over"