Kevin Drum 🕸

Believe it or not, I've been meaning to take this picture for years. I've just never had my camera handy at night when I've driven past it. But a few weeks ago, on a dex night, I was puttering around at 3 am and finally got my picture. There's just something about the sharp lines ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

Data here.

Last weekend I wrote a long, chart-laden post that summarized the evidence about housing in the US. I received some criticism that seemed reasonable, so I figured I'd address them here. Anne Paulson suggested that I shouldn't compare housing growth to population growth because housing is an adult thing. If a family has more children, ...continue reading "Housing update"

It's been a bit of a slow blogging week around here. On Monday I had a four-hour infusion. On Tuesday I met with my oncologist and then had a long lunch with a friend. On Wednesday I had my fourth—and hopefully last—eye adjustment. Thursday was crash day. Friday was also crash day. And then Saturday ...continue reading "Only in death does Trump part"

It's getting late, and Charlie is waiting for Marian to wake up so they can go upstairs to bed. It didn't take long.

Here is the Wall Street Journal today: Worker Pay and Benefits Grow at Record Pace, Pressuring Inflation Compensation for American workers grew rapidly in the first quarter, as a tight labor market put more money in workers’ pockets while also keeping pressure on inflation. Business and government employers spent 4.5% more on worker costs in ...continue reading "Worker pay and benefits plummet at record pace. Yes: plummet."

OK, I have to ask one more time. Suppose President Biden cancels all student debt. What happens next? It just starts piling up again for new students? State universities are forced to cut tuition and fees dramatically? The federal government starts massively subsidizing all university education? Or do we just hold a student debt jubilee ...continue reading "What happens after we cancel student debt?"

This is a patch of primroses in Borrego Park, a small overlook in Lake Forest.

By now you're all aware that GDP declined in the first quarter. Here's why: Consumer spending, government spending, and private investment—the key components of GDP—were up 1.8% on an annualized basis last quarter. That's no great shakes, but it's not too bad either. However, imports and exports are also a part of GDP. Normally they ...continue reading "GDP was down 1.4% last quarter, but it’s not all bad news"

Monday was the start of Milky Way season. It was the first time in 2022 that the core of the Milky Way rose at a decent hour (around 1 am) and there was no moon. Since it was a dex night for me, I went out to take some pictures. But I couldn't find it. ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

How's the economy doing? Inflation is up, but other than that GDP is growing; unemployment is down; consumption is high; investment is strong; corporate earnings are good; and businesses are growing. Here are the latest numbers for that: About 80% of job gains come from expanding businesses. Ditto for job losses. The other 20% come ...continue reading "Net job gains were up yet again last year"

A couple of days ago Vox published a trend piece about how young Gen Z folks "have created an abundance of memes and pithy commentary about their generational disillusionment toward work. The jokes, which correspond with the rise of anti-work ideology online, range from shallow and shameless (“Rich housewife is the goal”) to candid and ...continue reading "Gen Z loves to work"

LA County Sheriff Alex Villanueva, who got elected by appealing to the Hispanic community and promising to represent them, has turned out to be an unbelievable piece of shit. His latest stunt is to open a criminal investigation of an LA Times reporter who obtained surveillance video that Villanueva didn't want her to have: Los ...continue reading "Alex Villanueva is a horrible human being"

The Wall Street Journal editorial page is obsessed with Elon Musk and Twitter: Two-thirds of their featured opinion pieces are about Musk and Twitter. Why are conservatives so preoccupied with Twitter? For that matter, why is everyone so preoccupied with the fate of America's 15th biggest social media company?

This is the interior of a subway car on the LA Metro. If I were, say, Cindy Sherman, the MOMA label next to this photo would explain how COVID masks were used to immediately mark the era as late capitalism; the Foot Locker bags connect the metro to modern consumerism; and the height of the ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

Why don't Americans trust experts anymore? Sean Illing interviewed Michael Lewis about this recently, but they somehow managed to miss the obvious. Here are three charts from the GSS survey: There are blip and bloops, but around 1990 Republican trust in experts started a steady downward trend compared to Democrats. Republican distrust of the press ...continue reading "Why don’t we trust experts anymore? Well, some of us do."

Let's review what's going on in Florida. Walt Disney Corp., under pressure from its employees, publicly opposed Ron DeSantis's "Don't Say Gay" bill, but they were the only theme park that did so. There wasn't a peep from SeaWorld, Busch Gardens, Legoland, or Universal Studios (though their parent signed a petition opposing the bill). SeaWorld ...continue reading "Why did Florida only go after Disney?"

I'm trying to think of what Elon Musk might do with Twitter and why I should care. I'm coming up pretty dry, but let's go through the list. Conservatives periodically go up in arms over the belief that Twitter has "shadow banned" them. That is to say, Twitter's algorithm has quietly reduced their influence without ...continue reading "What will Elon Musk do with Twitter?"

The best analysis I've read of Emmanuel Macron's victory in the French presidential election yesterday comes from Helen Lewis in the New Statesman. The satire is subtle, however, unless you're well versed in the mainstream media's habit of parachuting into small town diners looking for "real Americans." But give it a look regardless. UPDATE: This ...continue reading "In search of lost Frenchmen"

Our highways are littered with electronic signs that provide us with information. Sometimes they're amber alerts. Sometimes they tell us about traffic conditions. Sometimes they urge us to get vaccinated. Most often, though, they tell us to drive carefully. But what messages work best? In Texas the signs tell you how many people have died ...continue reading "Scary traffic signs don’t always reduce highway crashes"