Kevin Drum 🕸

How late can abortions be performed in the US? A few facts: There are only seven states where abortion is legal in the third trimester. There are only 14 clinics in those states that perform abortions in the third trimester. They are expensive and time consuming. Based on extrapolations of CDC surveillance data, there are ...continue reading "Raw data: Late abortions in the US"

The New York Times must have been pretty desperate to find a few fact checks on Kamala Harris: It wasn't $1 trillion, it was $700 billion. Seriously? This is misleading? Another fact check dings Harris for saying they've created 800,000 manufacturing jobs when the real number is 739,000. Another upbraids her for saying correctly that ...continue reading "Fact checking Kamala Harris"

CNN says Kamala Harris thumped Donald Trump in their debate last night. In their flash poll, 63% said Harris won vs. 37% for Trump. The Washington Post says this is the fifth biggest victory out of 25 debate polls dating back to 1984. Perhaps even more interesting is that Harris's favorability rating shot up six ...continue reading "Kamala Harris toasted Donald Trump last night"

Here in Orange County we're battling a huge fire in Trabuco Canyon, a semi-rural area in the southeastern part of the county. The canyon itself is highly populated, but luckily the fire moved uphill from where it started and is mostly burning in uninhabited areas. It's called the Airport Fire due to California's inscrutable naming ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

My beloved YouGov poll suggests the presidential race is now dead even: This confirms the Morning Consult poll that showed Harris losing a bit of support in swing states compared to a couple of weeks ago. However, it turns out the entire change in this week's poll is due to Harris losing support from Hispanic ...continue reading "Harris and Trump are now tied — maybe"

Here's something to worry you if you're the worrying sort: You've probably heard that it's bad news when the yield curve inverts—that is, when long-term interest rates become lower than short-term rates. This is not a normal state of nature. However, the real danger signal is when the yield curve inverts seriously and then heads ...continue reading "The yield curve has just un-inverted"

CPI inflation rose 2.3% in August: This is up a bit from July but still well controlled. It should cause no problems for the Fed. On a conventional year-over-year basis, headline inflation was up 2.5% and core inflation was up 3.2%. The inflation rate for groceries has been under 1% since the beginning of the ...continue reading "Inflation remains well controlled in August"

The Taylor Swift endorsement is finally here. Will it matter? Stay tuned.   View this post on Instagram   A post shared by Taylor Swift (@taylorswift)

Who won the debate? I think it was Kamala Harris, but I would say that, wouldn't I? But I really think she did. I was impressed by her fluent command of facts, many of them a bit obscure. Her delivery was excellent. She chose not to respond to much of Trump's blizzard of lies, which ...continue reading "Kamala Harris won tonight’s debate"

Here's a headline in the New York Times today: This highlights a problem either with journalists or with economists. I can safely say that economists aren't "skeptical" of Trump's tariff blather. They think it's straight up bullshit. So is the problem that economists are too polite to say so when a Times reporter calls? Or ...continue reading "Tariffs are not as nuanced as the New York Times says"

Here's the Vienna Opera House at night just as a performance is starting to let out. I believe this was the setting for a big part of one of the Mission Impossible movies.

The FBI reported yesterday that cryptocurrency fraud in the US amounted to $5.6 billion in 2023. This is a 45% increase since 2022.¹ Nearly 40% of the fraud was perpetrated on people age 60 and over. This all makes the United States the crypto fraud capital of the world by a very wide margin. Here ...continue reading "America is the crypto fraud capital of the world"

The government's fiscal year ends on September 30, which means FY25 begins on October 1. That's three weeks away. Naturally we need a federal budget in place by then, but that's a laughable impossibility with Republicans in charge of the House. The best we can hope for is a continuing resolution to keep the lights ...continue reading "Voter ID: Solved!"

In addition to new poverty figures, the Census Bureau also released new annual income numbers today. Real household income was up 4.0% in 2023: Household income was up for all races and all income groups. It increased the most for the poorest 10% of workers. Note that this is "money income" as defined by the ...continue reading "Income rose 4% in 2023"

We got new poverty figures today from the Census Bureau, and the news was mixed: Using the old, official measure, the poverty rate was down 0.4 percentage points, dropping from 11.5% to 11.1%. However, using the shiny new SPM, the poverty rate was up 0.5 percentage points, rising from 12.4% to 12.9%. The SPM is ...continue reading "Chart of the day: Poverty in America"

TIL that members of Congress are allowed to use their franking privilege to buy TV ads: Love a good franked TV ad that looks indistinguishable from a campaign spot and airs in the midst of a competitive election *just* until the blackout date 60 days before Nov. 5 -- this latest one from CA-13 Rep. ...continue reading "When is a campaign ad not a campaign ad?"

Today brings good news and bad news. The good news is that Morning Consult polling shows Kamala Harris behind in only one battleground state. The bad news is that she's lost ground from two weeks ago: This is one tight race, folks. Even Florida is within two points (49-47 in favor of Trump).

This goes into the file of sentences you never expected to see: The Springfield Police Division said Monday morning they have received no reports related to pets being stolen and eaten. If you have no idea what this is all about, count your blessings. It means you're a normal person who doesn't chase right-wing memes ...continue reading "What’s really happening in Springfield?"

This is a picture of Highway 177 looking north on a day with 120° temperatures. It may be only the edge of the Mojave Desert, but it's still pretty hot.

I see that Kamala Harris now has an extensive issues page on her website. People have been whining about its absence forever, and now that it's here I predict that about 17 people will bother reading it. My favorite is this one: Politically, I'm sure this is a winner. Logically, not so much. It is, ...continue reading "We need higher energy costs"