Kevin Drum 🕸

The CDC released its biannual survey of teen suicide today, and the results are mixed. Here's a look at actual suicide attempts: Overall, suicide attempts were flat compared to 2019, which is heartening considering all the stresses of dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. I would have expected to see a noticeable increase. On the other ...continue reading "Raw data: Teen suicide during the pandemic"

Here's more good news on the inflation front: Consumer spending was down slightly in February, which keeps it right on the pre-pandemic trendline. It's yet another indication that consumer demand isn't spiraling ever upward. On the contrary, it remains well anchored.

Mortgage interest rates are up again this week: When you account for both home prices and interest rates, monthly payments are up nearly 30% over the past half year. Unsurprisingly, sales of both new and existing homes have dropped over the past few months and average sales prices have been flat. I expect this trend ...continue reading "Mortgage interest rates are up again"

Midday on Balboa Island, presented without comment.

For the past few weeks the most extreme members of the anti-gay right have been busily trying to resurrect panic over the idea that gay people try to "groom" kids into becoming gay. This is an ancient fear that was popular in the '70s and '80s but had mostly subsided since then. So how is ...continue reading "The whole disgusting “gay grooming” panic is already fading away"

Normally, the inflation rate of goods and services are roughly similar. But no longer: The inflation rate of durable goods has skyrocketed, and instead of being a few points below the inflation rate of services it's now 14 points above the inflation rate of services. One way to think about this is that the inflation ...continue reading "Raw data: Inflation rate of goods and services"

President Biden plans to release a million barrels of oil daily from the Strategic Oil Reserve in order to bring down the price of crude oil and, eventually, gasoline. Regardless of whether this is a good use of the SPR, the first question to ask is whether it's even likely to work. Here's the price ...continue reading "Can the Strategic Oil Reserve lower gasoline prices?"

These are cypress trees growing in the Atchafalaya swamp in Louisiana. The swamp used to be covered in cypress trees, but they were prized for their wood and were mostly fully logged by the end of the 19th century. The ones you see here are relatively new, planted long after the old growth trees were ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

James Medlock happened to post this chart today, so I might as well post it too. It shows what happens when the increased Obamacare subsidies go away and we return to the original subsidy structure: In its original form, Obamacare subsidies were available only for people with incomes under 400% of the poverty level. For ...continue reading "Chart of the day: What happens when the improved Obamacare subsidies go away"

Ezra Klein's podcast with Larry Summers wasn't just about inflation. Ezra also asked Summers to name three books that had influenced him: Third, a book that will come out in the next several months, Brad DeLong’s “Slouching Towards Utopia,” which is, I think, a really remarkable and powerful placing of all of economic history in ...continue reading "Three centuries: Science, economics, AI, and the creation of a new world"

This is an African spoonbill in a picture taken at the San Diego Zoo. As I recall, the spoonbill was not very cooperative but it eventually showed its entire self.

In an interview with Ezra Klein, economist Larry Summers says there are two things that he thinks are likely to produce a long-term inflation crisis. The first is that demand is too high. The second is that if wages go up too much (hooray!) they will eventually produce even higher inflation and before long the ...continue reading "Where is our inflation crisis supposed to come from?"

The Washington Post reports that Donald Trump's phone log on January 6, 2021, goes suddenly silent for 7 hours and 37 minutes starting when Trump addressed the rally to overturn the vote and continuing through the attack on the Capitol. Shortly after the rioters were finally cleared, the phone logs once again list calls to ...continue reading "Donald Trump has a 457-minute gap on January 6"

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, here's the inflation rate for new cars after it's been adjusted for the overall rate of inflation: This probably looks very wrong. A Toyota Corolla cost about $5,000 back in 1980 and costs about $20,000 today. That's an increase greater than the overall rate of inflation, and it's ...continue reading "How high is medical inflation?"

This is Interstate 15 where it crosses California Highway 76. The view is looking south. San Diego is shrouded in clouds at the southern end of I15; Oceanside is off the frame at the western end of Highway 76; and Camp Pendleton is off the frame to the lower right.

It seems like the whole Will Smith-Chris Rock thing needs some added juice to keep it going. But what? They're both Black, so there's no racial angle. They're both cis men, so there's no gender or sexual orientation angle. They're both the same age. They were both raised sort of vaguely working class. They both ...continue reading "Will Smith assaulted a man with a learning disorder"

Exciting news, genealogy nerds! Census records are kept private for 72 years, which means the 1950 census records will be available soon. On Friday, to be exact. What's even more exciting is that the 1950 records have already been digitized and will be fully searchable immediately. So if you want to find out where your ...continue reading "1950 census will be online this Friday"

Ultraviolet light kills pathogens such as COVID-19 but is also a danger to human beings. But what if there was a version of UV light that killed pathogens without affecting people? It turns out there is. Krypton chloride (KrCl) excimer lamps radiate light at a frequency of 222 nm, also known as Far-UVC, which is ...continue reading "Study says krypton excimer lamps safely kill off COVID-19 (probably)"

For the record, I have no problem with President Biden's ad-libbed comment about Putin yesterday. Blunt talk about autocrats is sometimes welcome, and wartime seems like an especially auspicious occasion for it. What's more, I very much doubt that it will cause Putin to blow his top or anything like that. Quite the opposite: the ...continue reading "Nine words: “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power”"

From Chris Wallace, longtime Fox News host, on why he finally left the network: I’m fine with opinion: conservative opinion, liberal opinion. But when people start to question the truth — Who won the 2020 election? Was Jan. 6 an insurrection? — I found that unsustainable. ....Some people might have drawn the line earlier, or ...continue reading "Quote of the day: Life at Fox News became “unsustainable”"