Kevin Drum 🕸

Behold our once and future president: Republicans backing Donald Trump are threatening Deloitte, a consulting firm that is one of the federal government’s largest business partners, with the loss of billions of dollars in contracts because an employee shared messages from 2020 in which JD Vance, now the GOP vice-presidential nominee, criticized the then-president’s record. ...continue reading "Trumpies level yet another stupid threat"

The Washington Post has a story today about payment apps like Venmo and PayPal. The gist of the piece is that they're inconsistently regulated and potentially not safe. I know I'm an old dinosaur, but I don't really get the appeal of payment apps. Oh, if you use them solely to transfer small amounts to ...continue reading "Use credit cards, not payments apps"

Are we having fun yet? Over the past three years, consumption has grown 13.7%: Now, these are annual figures, and the latest one represents an increase over the pandemic low. So it's maybe not totally fair. But it's still a great illustration of how strong the Biden recovery from the pandemic has been.

Over the past three years, the United States has produced 378 million barrels of oil per month: This is yet another 50-year high. You may decide for yourself if it's unalloyed good news, but it's certainly strong economic news.

Are you still hungering for great economic news? Over the past three years the poverty rate among working-age adults has averaged 9.3%: This is not quite a 50-year record, but only because Biden set that record last year.

Want more about how great the economy has been? Over the past three years GDP has grown 1.4% faster than potential GDP: This is not quite a 50-year record. The economy was slightly hotter during the dotcom boom of the late '90s. But it's still pretty damn strong.

Do you want to know how good the economy is? Over the past three years unemployment has averaged 3.8%. This is the lowest sustained rate of unemployment of the entire past half century. Better than Morning in America. Better than the dotcom boom. Better than Trump. The best in more than 50 years.

Here's something I ran into sort of by accident today. It shows how long it takes between filing a new business application and actually starting up: This is for retail stores. The time it takes to get the doors open has increased from 18 weeks to 30 weeks in only fifteen years. This same increase ...continue reading "It now takes 30 weeks to open a new store"

Here is the trajectory of growing income inequality over the past half century: As measured by the GINI metric, inequality skyrocketed during the '70s and '80s. Then, very abruptly in 1993, it slowed down. Inequality has been growing steadily ever since, but at a moderate rate. Nevertheless, the US now has the highest income inequality ...continue reading "Raw data: Income inequality in the US"

Here's another look at the federal budget over the next decade. It comes from the Congressional Budget Office: Nobody wants to cut Social Security or Medicare. Pensions are legally obligated. Veterans and defense have bipartisan support against cuts. And interest on the debt has to be paid. That leaves a bit under $2 trillion. It ...continue reading "Raw data: Spending and the deficit"

This now the modal Elon Musk tweet: 😡 https://t.co/WG6QiZAlE6 — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 4, 2024 I know I've asked this before, but what the hell happened to the guy? His feed these days is nothing but an endless firehose of retweeted lies and conspiracy theories, and not even remotely believable ones. It's just made-up ...continue reading "Elon Musk’s brain is tapioca"

What's the leading cause of death in the United States? Heart disease. But what's the fastest growing cause of death? Both accidental poisoning and alcoholic liver disease are up a lot, but the winner—by a mile—turns out to be "other infectious and parasitic diseases," which have gone up an astonishing 1500% since 2000. Malnutrition deaths ...continue reading "Raw data: Growing and declining causes of death in the US"

Here is Hilbert waiting patiently in the bushes for me to come home. Don't worry, my little meatloaf! I'll be back tomorrow.

Here is the growth of the labor force participation rate since Joe Biden took office. This is for prime-age workers (age 25-54). Both men and women are now working at higher rates than at any time since the end of the Great Recession.

The American economy gained a brisk 254,000 jobs last month. We need 90,000 new jobs just to keep up with population growth, which means that net job growth clocked in at 164,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate dropped yet again to 4.1%. Weekly earnings were up a meager 0.9%. Adjusted for inflation that's about -1.5%.

The past few years have seen quite a few teeth being gnashed on the topic of the First Amendment being in trouble. Most of the gnashing involves social media, and it all started around 2020, when several big platforms tried to rein in election lies and COVID misinformation. Some thoughts: During this initial period, the ...continue reading "Is free speech on the run?"

I have good news and bad news. The good news is that I've ramped up to the final dosage and Talvey has not produced any serious neurological side effects. I'm probably out of the woods on that. And some more good news: unless I'm badly mistaken, Talvey doesn't require dexamethasone after the ramp-up period. In ...continue reading "Health update"

I've been crashed out all day and woke up a while ago to eat dinner and watch Jeopardy! The room TV has no guide, so afterward I just surfed a bit and ended up on Fox News. I lasted a minute. The hospital TV must be on satellite or something, because I was getting the ...continue reading "Fox News is lying about FEMA"

I happened to see a local political ad a few minutes ago for some people I've never really heard of, but the gist was that one of them supported the allegedly odious George Gascón and was therefore unfit for office. For you non-natives, Gascón is an ex-LA cop who eventually became San Francisco district attorney ...continue reading "Raw data: Crime in Los Angeles"

Suppose you are walking through an airport at a steady 2 mph. You get onto a slideway that's also moving 2 mph. You're now moving 4 mph. Nope. Your speed is 3.999999999999999964 mph. That's about 4 minus one-quadrillionth of a mile per hour. Welcome to our universe.