Kevin Drum 🕸

These are the San Jacinto mountains at the start of spring. I took this picture near the middle of a loop off I10 that goes from Banning to Idyllwild and then out to Palm Desert.

I just finished reading Number Go Up, Zeke Faux's tale of the rise and fall of crypto. For the most part it's an engaging book but not a surprising one. Basically, crypto is a scam, and every crypto company is running pretty much the same scam. Details aside, the book didn't change my view of ...continue reading "Thousands of Asian slaves are behind a popular online scam"

Persistent inflation is killing the Democratic Party: But here's a question: Why is inflation such an intense issue? In round numbers, prices have gone up 20% since the start of the pandemic and wages have also gone up 20%. For most of us it's a wash. But that's not how most people see it. They ...continue reading "Why is inflation such a big issue?"

New JOLTS hiring and quits data was released today, and August was about the same as the previous month. Here's total hiring minus total separations: This represents the net number of new workers. It's been heading steadily down for two years and is getting dangerously close to zero. Then again, it almost did get to ...continue reading "Net hiring stays low but steady in August"

Hey, does anyone remember this? House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) indicated the IRS whistleblowers testifying in the investigation into Hunter Biden...are willing to hand over foreign transactions paperwork that could prove President Joe Biden was involved in a criminal bribery scheme. ...."We suspect that the Bidens had offshore bank accounts and that today ...continue reading "Hunter Biden has no offshore accounts. Neither does Joe."

Why are so many Republicans opposing further aid to Ukraine? Paul Krugman says it's not about the money: The answer is, unfortunately, obvious. Whatever Republican hard-liners may say, they want Putin to win. They view the Putin regime’s cruelty and repression as admirable features that America should emulate. They support a wannabe dictator at home ...continue reading "Why have so many Republicans become Ukraine skeptics?"

Get out the popcorn. Rep. Matt Gaetz—archenemy of Speaker Kevin McCarthy for some reason—has finally followed up on his threat to file a motion to remove McCarthy from the speakership. A vote will be held later this week. Gaetz needs 217 votes to oust McCarthy.¹ Obviously he won't get anywhere near that number from Republicans, ...continue reading "Matt Gaetz files motion to oust Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House"

CNN asked John Kelly, chief of staff to Donald Trump in 2017-18, if he wanted to say anything more about his former boss in light of recent developments. He did: What can I add that has not already been said? A person that thinks those who defend their country in uniform, or are shot down ...continue reading "Quote of the day: “God help us”"

Harry Brighouse provides a summary of "Sold a Story," a documentary podcast from Emily Hanford. The topic is reading instruction: Very brief synopsis: the methods routinely used to teach children to read in the US don’t work well for large numbers of children, and the science of reading has been clear about this for decades. ...continue reading "Do universities police their own researchers well enough?"

For those of you who missed it over the weekend, here's a chart showing the total population of unauthorized immigrants in the US over the past 15 years: This chart is based on consensus estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population. The final two years are my own (possibly iffy) projections based on the number of ...continue reading "The unauthorized immigrant population in the US has been flat for 15 years"

It's the first Monday in October, which is a good excuse to post this late afternoon picture of the Supreme Court building. I'm sure that everyone inside is eager to get back to work fighting for justice.

Donald Trump's trial for business fraud has opened on schedule. The New York Times provides a summary of the action so far: In their respective opening statements, the attorney general’s office and lawyers for Donald J. Trump spoke past each other: While the attorney general’s lawyer focused on the specific mechanics by which properties were ...continue reading "Donald Trump’s fraud trial is proceeding apace"

In the New York Times today, Margaret Renkl rails against book banning: During the 2022-2023 school year, PEN America, an advocacy organization that defends free expression, recorded 3,362 instances of book banning, a number that represents an increase of 33 percent in just one year....Book bans belong to the same categorical crime against democracy as ...continue reading "No book has been banned in the United States for more than half a century"

The Wall Street Journal says American consumers are spending lots of money on big blowouts: Household spending, the primary driver of the nation’s economic growth, remains robust. Americans spent 5.8% more in August than a year earlier, well outstripping less than 4% inflation. ....Economists and financial advisers say consumers putting short-term needs and goals above ...continue reading "Are Americans splurging more? I doubt it."

Celebrity author Michael Lewis spent months shadowing Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the failed crypto exchange FTX, and apparently came away convinced that SBF was just the victim of misfortune: This isn't a Ponzi scheme. Like, when you think of a Ponzi scheme, I don't know, Bernie Madoff, the problem is— there's no real business there. ...continue reading "Sam Bankman-Fried: “Plain old embezzlement”"

I mentioned the other day that I was curious about the net illegal immigration rate into the US. This would be (roughly) the number of border crossings minus repatriations and people going home of their own accord. The Border Patrol doesn't provide anything like this, but there's a way of getting at it. Several organizations ...continue reading "What’s the real rate of illegal immigration?"

Yesterday Rep. Jamaal Bowman triggered a fire alarm in the Cannon Office Building. He says it was because he was heading out to the Capitol Building to vote on the continuing resolution to keep the government open. The door he used is normally open, but on Saturday it was locked and had a confusing sign ...continue reading "Rep. Bowman is innocent"

Great moments in financial analysis from Tom Bevan: Academics & economists: We can't understand why people don't think the economy is great. WSJ: Rise in prices from Dec 2019 to Aug 2023: Gallon of milk: +12.5% New car: +29.9% Dozen eggs: +32.5% Gasoline: +49.4% Let's expand our view a bit: If you cherry pick and ...continue reading "Raw data: Inflation hasn’t hurt most people"

Yesterday was my last day on Obamacare. As of October 1, I'm officially a Medicare beneficiary. In other words, I am old.

Go get 'em, Matt: .@SpeakerMcCarthy is going to get his wish. I’m going to file a motion to vacate against him this week. If at this time next week Kevin McCarthy is still Speaker of the House, it will be because the Democrats bailed him out. He can be their Speaker, not mine. pic.twitter.com/ITlcwynY39 — ...continue reading "Gaetz says he’s going to oust McCarthy as Speaker"