Kevin Drum 🕸

The Washington Post reports today on inflation: “In the last few months, we’ve seen the shift away from trying to fight cost increases to pushing for [vendor] cost decreases,” said Bobby Gibbs, a partner in the retail and consumer goods division of the marketing consulting firm Oliver Wyman. That's how it goes. When inflation is ...continue reading "Retailers are starting to push vendors for price decreases"

Here is economic growth in the G7 countries since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic: Japan suffered the least from the pandemic: its GDP dropped only 7.6% at its lowest point. Great Britain did the worst, dropping 23.1%. The US has had the best recovery by far: We've grown 5.1% since the final pre-pandemic quarter. ...continue reading "Raw data: GDP growth since the start of the pandemic"

On Friday I asked how often the Chinese send spy balloons our way. Today I get an answer: Administration officials said Friday there have been other similar incidents of Chinese spy balloons, with one saying it happened twice during the Trump administration but was never made public. ....Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation ...continue reading "Three things you desperately wanted to know about the spy balloon"

I didn't notice this last week, but here's the letter the College Board sent out after Gov. Ron DeSantis said he was banning the AP African American Studies course in Florida. His decision was based on the preliminary framework then being piloted, not the final framework: To develop this official course framework, the AP Program ...continue reading "Ron DeSantis had nothing to do with changes to the AP African American Studies test"

Spy whale, my favorite spy, is in danger of being replaced in my heart by spy balloon. But first I have some questions: If it really is a surveillance balloon, why would China send it over? It's not likely to go unnoticed, after all. Do they have much control over it? I assume not, or ...continue reading "Some questions about the spy balloon"

From the New York Post: Republicans have demanded that Biden order the balloon shot down amid uncertainty about whether first son Hunter Biden still co-owns a company called BHR Partners with the Chinese government. Forget the balloon. I have some other ideas in mind if we want to start shooting things down.

Lately, Charlie's favorite place has been under the bushes in our front yard. He'll curl up there and then, when you open the front door, he'll come careening out and into the house. Maybe someday I'll have the foresight to capture a video of this. In the meantime, here's a photo of Charlie just before ...continue reading "Friday Cat Blogging – 3 February 2023"

This doesn't really make much sense: January came in with slower wage growth than in December. But if we added a gazillion jobs and sent the unemployment rate even lower, why did wage growth slow? In theory, workers have more leverage and should be demanding higher wages. Theory seems to have a real problem at ...continue reading "Against all odds, wage growth slowed in January"

The jobs report came out today and it was spectacular: We gained 517,000 jobs in January, which comes to 427,000 jobs after accounting for population growth. The unemployment rate went down to 3.4%, the lowest it's been in my lifetime. Here's the basic chart: Here's a different one: I've noted before that the employment level—a ...continue reading "Chart of the day: Employment in the US"

Boris Johnson, during a visit to Washington DC yesterday, said he was "appalled to discover just how many people are afraid and frightened of a guy called Tucker Carlson." Over at National Review, Bobby Miller gives him high-fives: Johnson’s concerns are justified. Because of his large viewership and ability to whip up anger against anybody ...continue reading "Please, let’s not pretend to be surprised about Tucker Carlson’s vast influence"

Here's a fun picture. I was snapping away at a hummingbird outside my window and happened to catch it shaking its head the way a dog does to shake off water. In this split second its gorget has swung into the sunlight and is partially obscuring its beak. BY THE WAY: This picture is a ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

Ramenda Cyrus writes in the American Prospect this month that replacing lead water pipes is a problem: Lead service lines have been a major public-health concern, one that became especially salient during the Flint, Michigan, water crisis. President Biden has repeatedly promised to replace all lead service lines in the country, a promise that became ...continue reading "Lead water pipes should get a little less attention"

There are those who say that the single most important economic indicator is labor productivity. In the long run, increasing the amount of stuff each worker can produce is the key to economic growth—and that includes wages, GDP, corporate profits, and everything else. Here's the latest reading on labor productivity: There was a big jump ...continue reading "Labor productivity increased 3% last quarter"

Harold Pollack, author of the personal finance index card, offers up an index card approach to computer security: I have an issue with this. It's not that any of it is wrong per se, just that it's too complicated. Like it or not, the vast majority of computer users either can't or won't follow all ...continue reading "Computer security for people who don’t know computers"

In preparation for my leukopheresis in a couple of weeks, I had to go in on Monday and get about 30 blood tests done. It turns out I don't have syphilis! Or Hep C! Hooray! More seriously, one of the 30 was the good old M-protein test. I've been off chemo for a month now, ...continue reading "Health update"

After focusing on K-12 schools for a while, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis decided yesterday to train his guns on universities: DeSantis, a Republican, took his most aggressive swing yet at the education establishment, announcing a proposed overhaul of the state’s higher education system that would eliminate what he called “ideological conformity.” If enacted, courses in ...continue reading "DeSantis announces program to indoctrinate college students"

This is what December and January have looked like here in Southern California: either stormy and threatening to rain, or else just raining. This picture was taken halfway up Mt. Baldy Road looking south toward Upland. It wasn't raining when I took it, but about half an hour later it started coming down.

The Washington Post reports today that Florida's K-12 teachers have been removing books from their classrooms while they await guidance from the state about what's allowed and what's not: House Bill 1467, which took effect as law in July, mandates that schools’ books be age-appropriate, free from pornography and “suited to student needs.” Books must ...continue reading "Florida teachers are finally getting some guidance about forbidden books"

JOLTS¹ data for December was released today. Here it is for the full year 2022: Hires have been declining, but recovered a bit in December, rising 2.2% compared to November. Ditto for job openings (up 5.5% in December). That's the good news. Then there's the bad news. Layoffs have been on an upward trend all ...continue reading "JOLTS report: The economy is doing OK, but not great"

Two people in two days have told me that NextDoor is aflame with outrage about the price of natural gas. And that's hardly surprising: here in California gas bills for December ranged from double to triple the normal rate. People who normally have gas bills of $100 or so are reporting bills of $200-$500 depending ...continue reading "Here’s why natural gas prices are so high in California"