Kevin Drum 🕸

The Wall Street Journal reports today that in 2021 Facebook removed posts saying COVID-19 was the result of a lab leak. This was done due to "pressure" from "the administration and others." There's no indication of what that pressure entailed, but in a similar case involving vaccine hesitancy it appears to have been public comments ...continue reading "Facebook says it was under “pressure” over lab leak posts"

Lots of new numbers today. By coincidence, the PCE figures were released the same day as the latest quarterly reading of the Employment Cost Index. According to the ECI, real wages were up at an annualized rate of 1.3% in Q2 but still well below their pre-pandemic level: In most measures of wages, we see ...continue reading "Wages are up, but still below their pre-pandemic level"

Consumer spending grew at an annualized rate of 4.7% in June but remained well below its pre-pandemic trend: Since the start of the year, spending has increased only 0.65%, an annualized rate of 1.3%. That's a big slowdown from the 4.4% annual rate of the previous two years.

PCE inflation figures were released this morning and they're nothing but good news: The Fed likes to look at the core PCE rate, and in June it finally fell significantly. It's now running at an annualized rate of 2.0%, which is right at the Fed's target. The headline rate is also running at 2.0%. On ...continue reading "Inflation drops to 2%, hitting Fed goal"

Social networks mostly have two different kinds of feeds: one that's a simple reverse chronological listing of posts from people you follow, and another that's controlled by an algorithm. On Twitter, users are forever complaining that the platform switches them to the algorithm without asking, and I imagine Facebook is the same. But why? A ...continue reading "Why does Facebook want you to be on their algorithmic feed?"

David Broder has a good piece in the New York Times today about the extremist right-wing government that's now running Italy. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has certainly moderated her rhetoric since being elected, he says, but underneath you'll still find the same old animating radicalism. This is particularly true of her government's animus toward migrants, ...continue reading "Italy’s problem with migrants is everybody’s problem"

The time to become skeptical of something is when, after a long period of fruitlessly waiting for the opposite to happen, everyone finally gives up and agrees it must be true. That's the current state of things regarding the sudden consensus predicting a "soft landing" for the economy. Jeanna Smialek has more in the New ...continue reading "Conventional wisdom finally agrees we’re going to have a soft landing. That’s why you should remain doubtful."

This is an early sunflower blooming at our local Audubon bird sanctuary. The place was practically overrun by them.

There's lots of talk about the skyrocketing amount of manufacturing being built lately, and with good reason: Manufacturing construction is nearly flat from 1980-2015. Then there was a modest increase. But since 2021 it's nearly doubled, thanks mostly to the infrastructure bill, IRA, and the CHIPS Act. Presumably manufacturing employment will also increase once all ...continue reading "Raw data: Manufacturing construction since 1960"

Large language AIs like ChatGPT train themselves on vast amounts of information hoovered up from every corner of the internet: "In the absence of meaningful privacy regulations, that means that people can scrape really widely all over the internet, take anything that is ‘publicly available’ — that top layer of the internet for lack of ...continue reading "Do AIs use too much of your personal data?"

The GDP report this morning was OK, but the BEA also released its estimate of personal income today. Adjusted for inflation, it increased at an annualized rate of 1.0% in Q2. Since the start of the pandemic it's up a total of 0.9%: Not so great. Inflation numbers come out tomorrow.

The BEA released its first estimate of GDP growth in Q2 and there were no surprises. It was up a respectable 2.4%: GDP growth was mostly due to increased consumer spending and nonresidential investment. For those predicting a soft landing, this was good news.

WTAF?

Big companies just can't help themselves: Some of the largest consumer brands in the country have continued to raise prices aggressively this year while raking in large profits, posing a tough problem for the Federal Reserve as it aims to tame inflation. Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and Unilever have each reported raising prices significantly in the second ...continue reading "Prices and profits keep going up, up, up"

Ron DeSantis decided today he has something on his mind: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), when asked if he would consider naming 2024 Democratic candidate RFK Jr. as his vice president: “Sic him on the FDA if he’d be willing to serve, or sic him on CDC.” pic.twitter.com/C7wASCmbt6 — The Recount (@therecount) July 26, 2023 DeSantis ...continue reading "Ron DeSantis dives head first into RFK Jr. cesspool"

I got the itemization of charges for my CAR-T treatment today. Check it out: Yes, that's seven digits. There are some other trivial charges, just a few measly tens of thousands of dollars here and there, that bring the entire cost of the procedure to about $1.2 million. Under the circumstances, I guess I can't ...continue reading "I’m now the million-dollar man"

This is a cloudy peak on the road to Mt. Baldy. I was about ten miles from the top when I took it, and hoping to get a good picture of Baldy itself. But it turns out you can't, really. The only place you can get a good picture of Mt. Baldy is way down ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

It's really high: And the Wall Street Journal reports that it might even be worse: The true level of China’s unemployment rate for young people ages 16 to 24 may be even higher than indicated by official data. Zhang Dandan, a Peking University economist, estimated the real youth unemployment rate in March could have reached ...continue reading "Raw data: Youth unemployment in China"

Jonathan Chait has a long piece in New York about the right's latest "master theory" of political war: namely that ever since the '60s the left has engaged in a cultural "long march" that has steadily taken over practically every influential American institution—entertainment, universities, big business, etc.—and the only hope for conservatives is to wage ...continue reading "Americans mostly hate Republican cultural beliefs"