Kevin Drum 🕸

On Wednesday I wrote a post saying we didn't have a housing shortage. I got a lot of pushback on that, so I figured I'd take a deeper look. The result is a big pile of charts. Basically, it's everything I could think of related to housing with no cherry picking and no game playing. ...continue reading "Here’s a long, boring look at the housing market"

We had a bit of rain last night, so this morning Hilbert got to jump on the fence¹ and pose for a beauty shot with a lovely background of puffy white clouds. Here's hoping the rest of the day is clear and brilliant too. ¹OK, fine, he didn't jump. I picked him up and put ...continue reading "Friday Cat Blogging – 22 April 2022"

Last night the eye folks dumped so much dilation fluid into my baby blues that I'm still dilated today. Because of that I can only barely see at close distances, which means that blogging will be slow. I'll return as my pupils slowly get smaller than a trash can lid and I can see again.

Huh. I guess the hot ticket for Republicans right after January 6 was to haul out the 25th Amendment and boot Donald Trump out of office: Recording of McCarthy and Cheney pic.twitter.com/oHMMV7TXbo — Acyn (@Acyn) April 22, 2022 Halfway through, McCarthy switches gears and tells Liz Cheney: "We know it'll pass the House. I think ...continue reading "For a few minutes in January, Republicans wanted to impeach Trump"

The Florida Department of Education finally released a few examples of "unacceptable" math problems today. Here is one of them: So the lesson here is that conservatives are racist, as proven by a test that's of dubious reliability. Nice work, textbook people. This is insane. I can't imagine there's a conservative governor anywhere in the ...continue reading "Florida finally shows us some of their woke mathematics"

Santa Barbara Island at sunset.

A few weeks ago (?) former Trump lapdog Jared Kushner parachuted into Saudi Arabia hoping to pick up an investment in his new private equity firm. Here's a sample of his pitch deck, which was obtained by The Intercept: I had a hard time picking out the most embarrassing slide from the deck and eventually ...continue reading "The Republican way of politics is changing"

This is a brightly lit mourning cloak butterfly that I took a picture of last year. It's a reminder that summer is coming soon this year.

In the New York Times today, James Forman Jr. and Kayla Vinson take another shot at the "superpredator" theory of the mid 1990s: In January the Connecticut Supreme Court reversed the 60-year sentence imposed on Keith Belcher, a Black teenager, for sexual assault and armed robbery committed when he was 14. Mr. Belcher was sentenced ...continue reading "Superpredators were real. But they aren’t anymore."

Today the BLS released the March edition of "Employment Characteristics of Families Summary." I have never noticed this report before and I've never looked at it, but it's basically just what it sounds like. It lists the employment rates of people depending on whether they're married, have kids, and so forth. Here's one chart: Men ...continue reading "When the kids grow up, parents stop working"

Paul Krugman says the Fed has to raise interest rates in order to get control of inflation: There is, however, a problem. The Fed’s efforts to control inflation will work mainly through the housing market, driving down sales and construction. Which wouldn’t be so bad if it weren’t for the fact that America hasn’t been ...continue reading "We don’t have a housing shortage"

Social media hasn't changed behavior, it has revealed it. The best way of reining in social media is not to rein in what people are allowed to write. It's to give users the ability to decide what they're going to see. The default setting should be something along the lines of "I only want to ...continue reading "Some notes on social media"

This is part of the path around Lake Martin in Louisiana. Much of the path is just packed earth and gravel, and another part is sort of modified jungle with a barely visible trail hacked out of it. However, a couple of miles (out of five) is like this: a nice, wide path with a ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

I have no particular reason for posting this aside from the fact that March unemployment figures were recently released. If you're curious how your state has done over the past year, here's the decline in unemployment since March 2021: Before you get too excited if your state did well, keep in mind that the states ...continue reading "Unemployment change by state"

On Monday a federal district judge appointed by Donald Trump overturned a CDC mandate that required masks on airplane flights. Liberals naturally went nuts. But it's worth a brief explainer about this. This particular ruling was just a ruling, but it falls into the general category of what are called "nationwide" injunctions—which have exploded in ...continue reading "Nationwide injunctions: A brief explainer"

Here in Los Angeles¹ we have a mayoral election coming up. The two main candidates are Karen Bass, a local member of Congress, and Rick Caruso, a billionaire real estate developer. Caruso is running mainly on a platform of getting tough on crime² and fixing the homeless mess. He's gonna build build build homeless shelters; ...continue reading "As usual, California’s latest homeless initiative is widely hated"

I haven't done a COVID-19 post for a little while, so I decided to use my dex-driven insomnia to do one tonight. Warning: I got pulled down a bit of a rabbit hole. This time I calculated excess deaths per country, which is generally considered a more accurate metric than official figures for COVID death ...continue reading "Raw data: Cumulative excess deaths from COVID-19"

A couple of days ago I mentioned that, in general, our prime-age labor force was now almost completely back to work. One smallish exception was prime-age women, many of whom had dropped out of the workforce and were no longer being counted. The most likely explanation for this has to do with the continuing shortage ...continue reading "Raw data: The child day care worker shortage"

This is a teaching flight at Cable Airport in Upland, California. We were up there visiting Marian's aunt in the hospital, and when we were done we took a quick trip by the airport to see if there was anything to take pictures of.

As you may have heard, Los Angeles is undergoing a rash of unusual crimes. Gangs from South LA have been sending crews specifically to target rich people, tailing them from fashionable hotels, restaurants and clubs and then stealing their watches and purses. At first glance, this might not seem mysterious. For one thing, it's been ...continue reading "Does higher income inequality produce higher crime rates?"