Kevin Drum 🕸

Israel has (so far) killed about half a percent of the population of Gaza. This is the equivalent of 1.5 million killed in the United States—or roughly 25 Vietnams. Relative to Israel, it's nearly the equivalent of 40 October 7ths.

Three weeks ago, Rep. Mike Johnson wrote a letter to his fellow Republicans saying that he was sure they could pass all 12 outstanding appropriations bills by.......this week. In the event, Republicans have passed zero appropriations bills. The reason for this is the usual one: Hard-right members of the Freedom Caucus have stalled any progress ...continue reading "Republicans fail yet again to pass spending bills"

CPI was down a lot in October: Headline inflation was down almost to zero thanks to lower gasoline prices, but core inflation was also down. On a trend basis, we're already down to the Fed's target rate. On the conventional year-over-year basis, headline CPI was down to 3.2% and core CPI was down to 4.0%.

This is a remarkable chart: In Washington DC's public high schools, about two-thirds of all students last year were chronically absent (missed 10%+ of all school days). About a third were profoundly chronically absent (missed 30%+ of all school days). This is up considerably from the previous year, primarily because of excused absences: parents are ...continue reading "Raw data: Absenteeism in DC public schools"

I still don't understand this: Business formation dropped a bit at the beginning of the pandemic, but by July 2020 it rebounded and hit a peak nearly twice its pre-pandemic rate. That subsided, but only slightly: from 2021 onward business formation has been running at a steady 50% above its pre-pandemic rate with no sign ...continue reading "Why are people starting so many new businesses?"

Stephen Wertheim repeats a common sentiment today: the United States has forfeited world opinion by supporting Israel in its war against Hamas. His evidence is a UN vote a couple of weeks ago calling for a "humanitarian truce": Washington is hemorrhaging influence around the world.... Displeasure is not confined to Arab states. In the U.N. ...continue reading "Is America losing its standing in the world?"

The Supreme Court issued a new code of ethics today. Huzzah? It is eight (8) pages long, five of which deal with recusal and outside activities such as speaking—none of which have been especially controversial lately. But gifts have been controversial, so let's take a look at the gift section: A Justice should comply with ...continue reading "Supreme Court adopts weak new code of ethics"

Last month I showed you the Heart Nebula—or part of it, anyway, since it was too big to fit in a single frame. Today I've got the nearby Soul Nebula, aka IC 1848. Get it? Heart and soul. Anyway, the Soul Nebula only barely fits in a single frame, but it's almost all there. And ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

This isn't new, but I just saw it today. On Delta airlines, miles flown are no longer the metric for earning elite status: Beginning next year for the 2025 travel year, Delta will have just one metric for earning status: money. Money spent on Delta tickets, vacation packages, hotels and car rentals booked through Delta ...continue reading "Delta Airlines credit cards are now half its business"

Henry Farrell has critical words for the notion that technological progress is both inevitable and inevitably good: Marc Andreessen’s recent “tech optimist manifesto” is one of the most significant statements of Silicon Valley ideology. As I’ve written elsewhere, it’s actually less a political manifesto than an apostolic credo for the Religion of Progress. The words ...continue reading "Progress is good"

Everyone is forecasting a weak holiday season this year. Here's the latest: The number of seasonal positions publicly advertised this fall fell to the lowest level in a decade, according to outplacement-services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The National Retail Federation estimates that between 345,000 to 445,000 seasonal workers will be hired this year, down ...continue reading "Holiday hiring, spending projected to be low this year"

Tyler Cowen asks today why more intellectuals don't convert to Protestantism, and I figured the answer was simple: intellectuals tend to be nonreligious and rarely convert to anything. But no! According to GSS data, level of education doesn't correlate in any way with being nonreligious. It doesn't really correlate with any other religious question on ...continue reading "Raw data: Non-religion by educational level"

Who's doing what in Gaza? It's something of a fog to me because I literally don't believe a word coming from either side. They both simply have too much incentive to lie since this is a war for public opinion as much as it's a war for control of territory. What little do we know ...continue reading "What do we really know about Gaza?"

Yes, I know all about Godwin's Law. It's worth paying attention to. However, having paid due attention, there's no way to avoid saying that this sounds like Adolf Hitler at a Nuremburg rally: Trump didn't say stuff like this as recently as a few years ago. Nor did he routinely forget who's president or who ...continue reading "Donald Trump and the “threat from within”"

You all know that I'm a bug about the delayed effects of Fed interest rate hikes. Here's a simple chart that shows why: Fed interest rate hikes don't directly affect inflation. They produce higher long-term rates which in turn slow down the economy. That's what reduces inflation. Long-term rates have indeed gone up since the ...continue reading "The Fed and the economy"

Who's responsible for the mess in the Middle East? You can go back as far as you want, of course, if you want to blame Theodor Herzl or Arthur Balfour or the United Nations or the Ottoman Empire. But if we stick to relatively recent history, the answer lies with one reckless man and a ...continue reading "The man who wrecked the Middle East"

Here's an odd thing: The Trump Organization has defaulted on its CMBS loan on its 40 Wall St building - transferred to special servicer #MacroEdgeCMBS pic.twitter.com/wKgO7gGmwl — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) November 10, 2023 Trump's 40 Wall Street property has been on watchlist for a while thanks to high costs and vacancy rates, but as near as ...continue reading "Is Donald Trump in default on 40 Wall Street?"

Louisiana's latest redistricting map is so unfair to Black voters that even the hyper-conservative Fifth Circuit Court has agreed it's illegal: The Louisiana state legislature has until the middle of January to enact a new congressional map after a federal court ruled that the state’s current map illegally disfranchises Black voters in the state.... According ...continue reading "Louisiana ordered to redraw racist congressional map"

Here is the quarterly rate of core PCE inflation over the past couple of decades: Excluding the unusual deflation during the start of the Great Recession, average core PCE inflation averaged 2.1% through 2019. In the third quarter of this year it was at 2.4%.

Over at New York, Kevin Dugan notes that BlackRock, a huge investment company, is close to getting SEC approval for a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange Traded Fund). An ETF is a fund that invests in related securities—the S&P 500, for example, or maybe a collection of health care companies—but is traded like an ordinary stock. By ...continue reading "Crypto is about to go mainstream by no longer being crypto"