Kevin Drum 🕸

In the year after the Supreme Court banned affirmative action at universities, Black enrollment has plummeted at elite universities: This data comes from a tracker run by Education Reform Now. It includes whatever universities have reported enrollment data so far, so it will change over time. So how did this affect white enrollment? Precisely not ...continue reading "Raw data: University enrollment by race"

This is Charlie sitting innocently next to a tree in our backyard. A few seconds after I took this he galloped up the tree, jumped onto the wall, and made his escape. He showed up shortly afterward in our neighbor's backyard. This is the first episode of catblogging taken with my new camera. Did I ...continue reading "Friday Cat Blogging – 13 September 2024"

I don't know whether to laugh at this piece from Politico or to be disgusted or something else: Whenever Vice President Kamala Harris mentions Project 2025 — the Heritage Foundation’s now-toxic blueprint for the next Republican administration — blood starts throbbing in the temples of certain conservative Heritage veterans.... “I cannot think of a study ...continue reading "What’s the matter with Project 2025?"

The BLS released its August report on import prices today. They were down 0.3%, or 3.7% on an annualized basis. But here's a more interesting long-term look at import prices adjusted for overall inflation: Why do we buy so many imported goods? Because they're cheap! The price of imported goods, after adjusting for overall inflation, ...continue reading "The price of imported goods continues to plummet"

If we give away welfare to poor people with no work requirements attached, does this make them lazy and indolent? It's hardly a nonsensical idea, though there's not much evidence that it happens in real life. More importantly, however, is that nearly all of our big means-tested welfare programs do have work requirements. The main ...continue reading "Most welfare programs already require the able-bodied to work"

When I show crime rates I normally use the FBI's figures, which are tallied up from police reports. An alternate source is the National Crime Victimization Survey, which calls up people and asks them if they've been the victim of a crime in the past year. The NCVS figures for 2023 were released today, but ...continue reading "New crime figures show decline in 2023"

Today Peter Coy takes on our habit of measuring inflation as the total over the past 12 months. He says this is like ignoring a football play that just happened and instead announcing only the results of the past 12 plays: Can’t blame the government for this. The headline on the news release from the ...continue reading "For most Americans, inflation is well under 2%"

The Pac-12 lives! Sort of. It's now the Pac-6. Washington State and Oregon State, which never found new homes after the conference collapsed last year, have recruited Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State and Fresno State to form the nucleus of a new and reinvigorated Pac-something. Moneywise, it's all stupid. The other Pac-12 schools ...continue reading "West Coast football is reborn"

Here's a pretty little yellow wildflower. I'm too lazy to try and find out what it is, but maybe someone in comments can identify it?

This is an all-time great headline: One right-wing crackpot is in a feud with another right-wing crackpot and it's front page news. May God have mercy on us all.

Lord help me, but I read a Wall Street Journal op-ed last night. I keep promising myself never to do this, but sometimes I backslide. The topic of last night's piece was "Welfare Is What’s Eating the Budget." It was co-authored by Phil Gramm—remember him?—and it was odd even by Journal standards. It contained a ...continue reading "Surprise! The Wall Street Journal misleads on social welfare spending."

How late can abortions be performed in the US? A few facts: There are only seven states where abortion is legal in the third trimester. There are only 14 clinics in those states that perform abortions in the third trimester. They are expensive and time consuming. Based on extrapolations of CDC surveillance data, there are ...continue reading "Raw data: Late abortions in the US"

The New York Times must have been pretty desperate to find a few fact checks on Kamala Harris: It wasn't $1 trillion, it was $700 billion. Seriously? This is misleading? Another fact check dings Harris for saying they've created 800,000 manufacturing jobs when the real number is 739,000. Another upbraids her for saying correctly that ...continue reading "Fact checking Kamala Harris"

CNN says Kamala Harris thumped Donald Trump in their debate last night. In their flash poll, 63% said Harris won vs. 37% for Trump. The Washington Post says this is the fifth biggest victory out of 25 debate polls dating back to 1984. Perhaps even more interesting is that Harris's favorability rating shot up six ...continue reading "Kamala Harris toasted Donald Trump last night"

Here in Orange County we're battling a huge fire in Trabuco Canyon, a semi-rural area in the southeastern part of the county. The canyon itself is highly populated, but luckily the fire moved uphill from where it started and is mostly burning in uninhabited areas. It's called the Airport Fire due to California's inscrutable naming ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

My beloved YouGov poll suggests the presidential race is now dead even: This confirms the Morning Consult poll that showed Harris losing a bit of support in swing states compared to a couple of weeks ago. However, it turns out the entire change in this week's poll is due to Harris losing support from Hispanic ...continue reading "Harris and Trump are now tied — maybe"

Here's something to worry you if you're the worrying sort: You've probably heard that it's bad news when the yield curve inverts—that is, when long-term interest rates become lower than short-term rates. This is not a normal state of nature. However, the real danger signal is when the yield curve inverts seriously and then heads ...continue reading "The yield curve has just un-inverted"

CPI inflation rose 2.3% in August: This is up a bit from July but still well controlled. It should cause no problems for the Fed. On a conventional year-over-year basis, headline inflation was up 2.5% and core inflation was up 3.2%. The inflation rate for groceries has been under 1% since the beginning of the ...continue reading "Inflation remains well controlled in August"

The Taylor Swift endorsement is finally here. Will it matter? Stay tuned.   View this post on Instagram   A post shared by Taylor Swift (@taylorswift)

Who won the debate? I think it was Kamala Harris, but I would say that, wouldn't I? But I really think she did. I was impressed by her fluent command of facts, many of them a bit obscure. Her delivery was excellent. She chose not to respond to much of Trump's blizzard of lies, which ...continue reading "Kamala Harris won tonight’s debate"