Kevin Drum 🕸

Every month I get a big pile of blood tests. Here's one of them: This result happens to be from May 26, 2020. A year later the "Non Black" designation suddenly disappeared. Why? Well, there's now a note that says "GFR estimate is by the CKD-EPI 2021 equation." I never noticed that before, but today ...continue reading "A new kidney test is still racist. It just harms a different race."

According to the Wall Street Journal, "Enrollment in vocational training programs is surging." Do you see the cheat? This is year-by-year growth, not overall growth since the NSC started collecting data. Here's the real growth: There was a spike in 2023, but it was only a recovery from the huge decline during the pandemic. Enrollment ...continue reading "Gen Z isn’t getting its hands dirty"

Why does Easter move around? The short answer is that the Bible suggests Jesus was resurrected on the third day after Passover, and since Passover moves around, so does Easter. Slightly longer answer: In 325 AD, the Council of Nicaea decided that the leap months in the Hebrew calendar made it unreliable, so they decreed ...continue reading "Some Easter ponderings"

Behold Donald Trump's Easter morning message of redemption and grace to the American people: There's an ancient online controversy about how best to respond to manufactured outrage like this. One camp says we should ignore it. The folks who produce this stuff just want attention, so by responding we're taking the bait. The other camp ...continue reading "Donald Trump celebrates Easter with yet another vicious rant"

The incarceration rate of the Black male community has dropped in half since 2001, from 3.3% to 1.6%. That's substantial, but even the 2022 number is largely the result of a lot of inertia: men who were imprisoned years ago with long sentences remain in prison today. But as Rick Nevin reports, the story is ...continue reading "Raw data: Incarceration of Black men has plummeted"

What's really going on with aid deliveries into Gaza? Let's start with two numbers that everyone seems to agree on: Before the war, about 500 trucks entered Gaza daily. Those weren't all food and medicine, of course, but that much capacity existed. After the war started, the number of aid trucks started very low and ...continue reading "How much aid is Gaza getting?"

Some food for thought: Are medical studies being written with ChatGPT? Well, we all know ChatGPT overuses the word "delve". Look below at how often the word 'delve' is used in papers on PubMed (2023 was the first full year of ChatGPT). pic.twitter.com/iNxZfFLkxL — Jeremy Nguyen ✍🏼 🚢 (@JeremyNguyenPhD) March 30, 2024 Wait. ChatGPT overuses ...continue reading "Let’s delve into medical studies"

I guess all's fair in love and politics, but the Trump campaign blasted Joe Biden today for his "years-long assault on the Christian faith." Why? Because he "formally proclaimed Easter Sunday as 'Trans Day of Visibility.'" The page with the proclamation even has an Easter bunny logo at the top, proving that they're deliberately targeting ...continue reading "Donald Trump celebrates the resurrection of Christ with yet another vicious lie"

Last year the Fed issued some new banking rules. Big banks didn't like them, so they teamed up a few weeks ago with the US Chamber of Commerce to sue. They chose to file their suit in Amarillo, Texas, where it was guaranteed to be heard by Matthew Kacsmaryk, a reliable Republican judge. The Chamber ...continue reading "Venue shopping lives!"

I can't say this has never happened before, but I noticed something while reading the LA Times at breakfast this morning: it had no ads. The A section had literally not a single ad, and the B section had a few obituaries and classified ads, but not a single display ad. Not one. This is ...continue reading "The LA Times was an ad-free newspaper today"

What am I? I don't mean this in some grand philosophical sense. I just mean politically. Back in the day I was fond of calling myself an FDR liberal, but while that had the right vibe it wasn't easily understood. Then for a while it seemed like everyone was consumed by Europe and I said, ...continue reading "What am I?"

Do I have any doctors in the audience? I have a question for you. Today I had a prostate biopsy. It was scheduled for 8 am, which meant I had to get up at 6 am in order to take the required antibiotic and then give myself an enema. Next Friday I get the results. ...continue reading "Why do doctors love to schedule things at oh dark thirty?"

From Jonathan Cohen, an expert on lotteries: Lotteries are run by state agencies, and they’re exempt from truth in advertising laws. Huh. This is why, for some reason, state lotteries are allowed to advertise jackpots as the sum of 30 years of payments, rather than the amount they'll actually give you tomorrow if you win. ...continue reading "Quote of the day: The government isn’t required to tell the truth"

Bob Somerby was watching TV the other night and heard something interesting: We have this asylum law where, if you get to the United States, we are going to hear your asylum claim.... The president cannot fix that. And as long as that's the rule—that, get here and you can stay as long as you ...continue reading "About a third of all border crossers ask for asylum"

Hilbert in his box.

I can hardly stand to pass this along, but here it is: School-age children affected by the water crisis in Flint, Mich., nearly a decade ago suffered significant and lasting academic setbacks, according to a study released Wednesday, showing the disaster’s profound impact on a generation of children. ....The learning gap was especially prevalent among ...continue reading "Here’s yet more misleading “science” about the Flint lead crisis"

The Census Bureau has released some new survey data about AI use and it's pretty interesting. Overall use of AI is still fairly low: about 5.4% of firms report using it now, expected to rise to 6.6% in autumn. Of those firms who report using AI, here's what they say they're using it for: All ...continue reading "Raw data: Use of AI in American industry"

Via the New York Times, here's an interesting look at the political/cultural orientation of various AI models that are publicly available and widely used. It comes from a paper by David Rozado, who did the testing. On the left are the results from base, untrained AI engines made by OpenAI and Meta. They're pretty centrist. ...continue reading "Commercial chatbots lean to the left"

After last month's spike, PCE inflation came down in February: Headline PCE was down only a bit, but core PCE—which the Fed focuses on—was down substantially to 3.2%. This is pretty good news since it suggests that last month's spike was probably pretty transitory. On a more conventional year-over-year basis, headline PCE was 2.5% and ...continue reading "PCE inflation moderates in February"

Here's an odd one. A few weeks ago the CFPB issued a new rule substantially cutting late fees on credit card payments. The US Chamber of Commerce quickly sued. They unsurprisingly chose to file in the Fort Worth division of the Northern District of Texas, home to judges Reed O'Connor and Mark Pittman, who are ...continue reading "Reliable Republican judge throws Chamber of Commerce under the bus"