a Better Bubble™

Kevin Drum 🕸

Trump is spending $1.5 million per week in legal fees

7 months 4 weeks ago
Donald Trump's PAC wants a refund from Donald Trump's super PAC: The political action committee that has been paying former President Donald J. Trump’s legal fees requested a refund on a $60 million contribution it made to the super PAC supporting the Republican front-runner, according to two people familiar with the matter. ....The refund was ...continue reading "Trump is spending $1.5 million per week in legal fees"
Kevin Drum

I read the entire Slack archive about the origin of SARS-CoV-2. There is no evidence of improper behavior.

7 months 4 weeks ago
Back in March 2020, just as COVID-19 was hitting American shores, a team of researchers published a highly influential article titled "The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2." It argued that the evidence was strongly in favor of a natural origin of the virus, and while a lab leak couldn't be completely disproven there was no evidence ...continue reading "I read the entire Slack archive about the origin of SARS-CoV-2. There is no evidence of improper behavior."
Kevin Drum

Economy watch: Hires are down, fires are up

7 months 4 weeks ago
The Wall Street Journal says today that the US economy is "sticking" its soft landing: Parts of the economy are cooling, just as the Federal Reserve would like to see to combat inflation. Freight railroads, for instance, are seeing shipping volumes decline. Construction firms are cutting back on equipment purchases. A vending-machine company’s customers are ...continue reading "Economy watch: Hires are down, fires are up"
Kevin Drum

Facebook says it was under “pressure” over lab leak posts

8 months ago
The Wall Street Journal reports today that in 2021 Facebook removed posts saying COVID-19 was the result of a lab leak. This was done due to "pressure" from "the administration and others." There's no indication of what that pressure entailed, but in a similar case involving vaccine hesitancy it appears to have been public comments ...continue reading "Facebook says it was under “pressure” over lab leak posts"
Kevin Drum

Consumer spending up in June, but growing slowly

8 months ago
Consumer spending grew at an annualized rate of 4.7% in June but remained well below its pre-pandemic trend: Since the start of the year, spending has increased only 0.65%, an annualized rate of 1.3%. That's a big slowdown from the 4.4% annual rate of the previous two years.
Kevin Drum

Why does Facebook want you to be on their algorithmic feed?

8 months ago
Social networks mostly have two different kinds of feeds: one that's a simple reverse chronological listing of posts from people you follow, and another that's controlled by an algorithm. On Twitter, users are forever complaining that the platform switches them to the algorithm without asking, and I imagine Facebook is the same. But why? A ...continue reading "Why does Facebook want you to be on their algorithmic feed?"
Kevin Drum

Italy’s problem with migrants is everybody’s problem

8 months ago
David Broder has a good piece in the New York Times today about the extremist right-wing government that's now running Italy. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has certainly moderated her rhetoric since being elected, he says, but underneath you'll still find the same old animating radicalism. This is particularly true of her government's animus toward migrants, ...continue reading "Italy’s problem with migrants is everybody’s problem"
Kevin Drum

Conventional wisdom finally agrees we’re going to have a soft landing. That’s why you should remain doubtful.

8 months ago
The time to become skeptical of something is when, after a long period of fruitlessly waiting for the opposite to happen, everyone finally gives up and agrees it must be true. That's the current state of things regarding the sudden consensus predicting a "soft landing" for the economy. Jeanna Smialek has more in the New ...continue reading "Conventional wisdom finally agrees we’re going to have a soft landing. That’s why you should remain doubtful."
Kevin Drum

Lunchtime Photo

8 months ago
This is an early sunflower blooming at our local Audubon bird sanctuary. The place was practically overrun by them.
Kevin Drum

Raw data: Manufacturing construction since 1960

8 months ago
There's lots of talk about the skyrocketing amount of manufacturing being built lately, and with good reason: Manufacturing construction is nearly flat from 1980-2015. Then there was a modest increase. But since 2021 it's nearly doubled, thanks mostly to the infrastructure bill, IRA, and the CHIPS Act. Presumably manufacturing employment will also increase once all ...continue reading "Raw data: Manufacturing construction since 1960"
Kevin Drum

Personal income up a measly 1.0% in Q2

8 months ago
The GDP report this morning was OK, but the BEA also released its estimate of personal income today. Adjusted for inflation, it increased at an annualized rate of 1.0% in Q2. Since the start of the pandemic it's up a total of 0.9%: Not so great. Inflation numbers come out tomorrow.
Kevin Drum

GDP up 2.4% in Q2

8 months ago
The BEA released its first estimate of GDP growth in Q2 and there were no surprises. It was up a respectable 2.4%: GDP growth was mostly due to increased consumer spending and nonresidential investment. For those predicting a soft landing, this was good news.
Kevin Drum