Kevin Drum 🕸

Politico reports that Rep. Matt Rosendale is ruining the GOP's strategy to beat Sen. Jon Tester in Montana by making plans to run in the Republican primary: GOP leaders launched a concerted campaign to box out Rosendale and clear the path for Tim Sheehy, a Navy SEAL-turned-business executive who launched a Senate bid in June. ...continue reading "Republicans are set to blow yet another winnable election"

I was reading an article this morning that, in passing, blamed the slowdown in world trade on a switch in spending among consumers from goods to services. But not really: It's true that spending on goods has been flat since mid-2021 while spending on services has continued to rise.¹ But trade is all about absolute ...continue reading "Consumer spending on goods is still very high"

This is a happy looking dog, no? And it's no wonder since he was getting his walkies at the Balboa Fun Zone. Who wouldn't be happy?

A few days ago the LA Times passed along survey data from UCLA that says kids in California aren't having sex anymore: In 2021, the survey found, the number of young Californians ages 18 to 30 who reported having no sexual partners in the prior year reached a decade high of 38%. In 2011, 22% ...continue reading "The kids are finally having sex again!"

Atrios on the Wall Street Journal: Regularly people are shocked to discover that the WSJ editorial page is as loony as Fox News....But they rarely take the next step and consider the likely consequences of that being pumped into the heads of the richest people in the country daily. There's this odd belief that those ...continue reading "The genius of the Wall Street Journal editorial page isn’t in what it says"

The Guardian's front page is currently promoting a story that says antibiotic resistance is associated with air pollution—in particular, with small particulates called PM2.5, which are produced mostly by fossil fuels in richer countries and by dust and residential coal burning in poorer ones. Unfortunately, when I clicked through to the study this was based ...continue reading "New study says air pollution causes most antibiotic resistance. Maybe…"

Here is a chart from Semafor that's been making the rounds: Zounds! A 40-point gap has opened up between Democrats and Republicans over the past two decades. What happened?!? To see the simple and obvious answer, all you have to do is look at more than three data points: Republicans generally thought the federal government ...continue reading "Republicans and Democrats agree: The other party is horrible"

Here is your super short guide to tomorrow's election in Ohio: December: Ohio abolishes August elections because they are wasteful and attract low turnouts. February: Two pro-choice groups submit language for a referendum in November to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. May: In a turnaround, Republicans vote for one last August election this ...continue reading "A very brief guide to Tuesday’s election in Ohio"

This is the altar at the Basilica of Sacré-Coeur in the Montmartre district of Paris.

The Washington Post says that American companies are trying to reduce their exposure to China. The result is that we're buying less and less stuff from them: U.S. companies are accelerating efforts to reduce their dependence upon Chinese suppliers, even as officials in Washington and Beijing labor to put a floor under their sour relationship. ...continue reading "Imports from China plummeted in the second half of 2022"

Yesterday I wrote about new regulations limiting sulphur content in the bunker fuel used by oceangoing vessels. I concluded that the effect on climate change of these limits was minuscule, but today Alex Tabarrok links to an article in Science that suggests the effect might have been more substantial. But there are reasons for skepticism. ...continue reading "Update: Sulphur limits still aren’t responsible for the unprecedented heat this year"

The New York Times suggests that the war against woke isn't doing any better than the war against Christmas. Even Republican voters are tired of it: When presented with the choice between two hypothetical Republican candidates, only 24 percent of national Republican voters opted for a “a candidate who focuses on defeating radical ‘woke’ ideology ...continue reading "Anti-woke is fading, but immigration is forever"

Here are two measures of consumer confidence, one from an OECD survey and one from the University of Michigan: Both measures agree that consumer confidence has been rising over the past year. However, it's still way below normal. It's no wonder that the economy hasn't yet helped improve Joe Biden's approval rating.

Paul Krugman has a column today about interest on the national debt. It's going up thanks to the Fed's rate hikes, but he says it's not likely to be a long-term problem. His explanation gets a little complicated, though, so I'd like to simplify it. Here is every significant Fed interest rate hike from the ...continue reading "What goes up must come down: Interest on the national debt edition"

August 3rd: Donald Trump receives a warning from the judge overseeing his arraignment. August 4th: Donald Trump responds. A "spokesman" later "clarified" that Trump was referring only to "RINO, China-loving, dishonest special interest groups and Super PACs." Approximately no one believes this, least of all Jack Smith, who's prosecuting Trump: Federal prosecutors asked a judge ...continue reading "Trump threatens enemies 24 hours after being warned not to"

Why is it so hot? The latest theory making the rounds is that it's due to a change in shipping regulations. In 2020 the International Maritime Organization reduced the allowable sulphur content of bunker fuel to 0.5%, which was great for human health but not so great for global warming. You see, sulphur emissions cool ...continue reading "New shipping rules aren’t responsible for our scorching summer"

The New York Times tells us today about yet more billionaire assistance propping up the not-so-down-to-earth lifestyle of Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas. In 1999 he bought a used RV that he uses to travel around the country: His Prevost Marathon cost $267,230, according to title history records obtained by The New York Times. And ...continue reading "Today brings word of yet more borrowed money for Clarence Thomas"

The chart below shows the net number of people added to corporate payrolls each month in the US. As you can see, it's been going steadily down for the past two years: I let Excel draw two trendlines through the raw data. If things level off, we get a soft landing. If a straight line ...continue reading "Net hiring has been declining for the past two years"

This is Charlie in his favorite lizard hunting grounds. It's the west side of our backyard, which is full of ferns and other low-growing little plants, which makes it a great place to slink around and pretend no one can see you.

A recent study in Sweden randomly assigned breast cancer screenings to either an AI or a human radiologist. Guess which one did better? There were 244 screen-detected cancers...in the intervention group and 203 cancers...in the control group. Compared with the control group, the screen-reading workload of radiologists was reduced by 44.3% using AI-assisted techniques. That's ...continue reading "In new study, AI finds 20% more breast cancers than human radiologists"