Kevin Drum 🕸

Today at lunch the topic of traffic came up. If lots of people are working at home these days, shouldn't commuting traffic in cities be down considerably? I said I'd check, but that turns out not to be easy. Here's one data point: This is national data and it shows no change whatsoever in urban ...continue reading "Raw data: Urban traffic pre- and post-COVID"

An op-ed in the Washington Post today complains about all those touchscreen apps asking how much of a tip you want to leave: Tipping is now out of control. Gratuity prompts have become so widespread and indiscriminate that a new study from the Pew Research Center shows it is causing mass confusion and frustration. ....The ...continue reading "Please leave a tip if you read this blog post"

This is a church steeple in the city of Banning during late winter, with a bit of snow still left on the mountains. The church elders need to fix their cross. It's crooked.

Republicans: can't live with 'em, can't chop 'em up for cat food: For review, since Johnson took over as speaker, House Republicans have: Yanked THUD from the floor Yanked FSGG from the floor Voted down a rule on CJS Had 93 no votes on a clean CR Still no action on AG Appear to be ...continue reading "Republicans still unable to pass anything"

Zeke Faux's account of the crypto industry, Number Go Up, is a great book. But there's an odd thing about it: The genesis of Faux's interest in crypto is Tether, a so-called "stablecoin" that's always equal to exactly $1 and is backed 1:1 by currency and safe securities. Faux wants to learn more about Tether—for ...continue reading "What’s the deal with Tether?"

There is, I suppose, not much point in trawling the internet every morning and arguing with random conservative posts. But sometimes I just shake my head and can't help myself. Here is Jimmy Quinn, national security correspondent for National Review: There’s a lot to say about the implications of the Biden administration’s apparent return to ...continue reading "America is the envy of the world"

Adjusted for inflation, retail sales were down 2.5% in October: On a year-over-year basis, sales were down 1.6%.

The Producer Price Index dropped substantially in October: This is good inflation news. It's a volatile series, but on a trend basis PPI is down to 0%. Even the PPI for services was down to 0%. On a conventional year-over-year basis, PPI in October clocked in at 1.3%.

The latest hotness about the economy is that people aren't satisfied with low inflation. They don't merely want prices to rise more slowly, they want prices to return to their old levels. I don't know if this is true, or even whether it's an effective attack line. Either way, it ain't gonna happen. In the ...continue reading "It’s not the inflation, it’s the prices?"

Andrew Gelman and pals have a new paper out that looks at one aspect of partisan polarization: perceptions of the opposite party vs. reality. What they found shouldn't surprise anyone. In a nutshell, Democrats think Republicans are more conservative than they really are, and Republicans think Democrats are more liberal than they really are. Here's ...continue reading "Here’s why we hate each other"

There won't be a government shutdown this month. Republicans supported Mike Johnson's continuing resolution only barely, 127-93, but Democrats joined up with the non-insane Republicans to give the CR a bipartisan 336-95 victory in the House. It's expected to pass the Senate later this week. The CR lasts through late January, which means that at ...continue reading "Government shutdown avoided yet again"

Here's the latest YouGov poll showing Democratic preferences in the Gaza war: Every age group is more sympathetic to the Israelis than the Palestinians with the exception of the youngest cohort, which is slightly more sympathetic to the Palestinians. Overall, Democrats approve of Joe Biden's handling of the war by 62-21%.

This is a pair of (almost) twin horses snarfing away at their lunch shortly after the solar eclipse. It doesn't appear to have bothered them much.

Israel has (so far) killed about half a percent of the population of Gaza. This is the equivalent of 1.5 million killed in the United States—or roughly 25 Vietnams. Relative to Israel, it's nearly the equivalent of 40 October 7ths.

Three weeks ago, Rep. Mike Johnson wrote a letter to his fellow Republicans saying that he was sure they could pass all 12 outstanding appropriations bills by.......this week. In the event, Republicans have passed zero appropriations bills. The reason for this is the usual one: Hard-right members of the Freedom Caucus have stalled any progress ...continue reading "Republicans fail yet again to pass spending bills"

CPI was down a lot in October: Headline inflation was down almost to zero thanks to lower gasoline prices, but core inflation was also down. On a trend basis, we're already down to the Fed's target rate. On the conventional year-over-year basis, headline CPI was down to 3.2% and core CPI was down to 4.0%.

This is a remarkable chart: In Washington DC's public high schools, about two-thirds of all students last year were chronically absent (missed 10%+ of all school days). About a third were profoundly chronically absent (missed 30%+ of all school days). This is up considerably from the previous year, primarily because of excused absences: parents are ...continue reading "Raw data: Absenteeism in DC public schools"

I still don't understand this: Business formation dropped a bit at the beginning of the pandemic, but by July 2020 it rebounded and hit a peak nearly twice its pre-pandemic rate. That subsided, but only slightly: from 2021 onward business formation has been running at a steady 50% above its pre-pandemic rate with no sign ...continue reading "Why are people starting so many new businesses?"

Stephen Wertheim repeats a common sentiment today: the United States has forfeited world opinion by supporting Israel in its war against Hamas. His evidence is a UN vote a couple of weeks ago calling for a "humanitarian truce": Washington is hemorrhaging influence around the world.... Displeasure is not confined to Arab states. In the U.N. ...continue reading "Is America losing its standing in the world?"

The Supreme Court issued a new code of ethics today. Huzzah? It is eight (8) pages long, five of which deal with recusal and outside activities such as speaking—none of which have been especially controversial lately. But gifts have been controversial, so let's take a look at the gift section: A Justice should comply with ...continue reading "Supreme Court adopts weak new code of ethics"