Kevin Drum 🕸

The New York Times suggests that the war against woke isn't doing any better than the war against Christmas. Even Republican voters are tired of it: When presented with the choice between two hypothetical Republican candidates, only 24 percent of national Republican voters opted for a “a candidate who focuses on defeating radical ‘woke’ ideology ...continue reading "Anti-woke is fading, but immigration is forever"

Here are two measures of consumer confidence, one from an OECD survey and one from the University of Michigan: Both measures agree that consumer confidence has been rising over the past year. However, it's still way below normal. It's no wonder that the economy hasn't yet helped improve Joe Biden's approval rating.

Paul Krugman has a column today about interest on the national debt. It's going up thanks to the Fed's rate hikes, but he says it's not likely to be a long-term problem. His explanation gets a little complicated, though, so I'd like to simplify it. Here is every significant Fed interest rate hike from the ...continue reading "What goes up must come down: Interest on the national debt edition"

August 3rd: Donald Trump receives a warning from the judge overseeing his arraignment. August 4th: Donald Trump responds. A "spokesman" later "clarified" that Trump was referring only to "RINO, China-loving, dishonest special interest groups and Super PACs." Approximately no one believes this, least of all Jack Smith, who's prosecuting Trump: Federal prosecutors asked a judge ...continue reading "Trump threatens enemies 24 hours after being warned not to"

Why is it so hot? The latest theory making the rounds is that it's due to a change in shipping regulations. In 2020 the International Maritime Organization reduced the allowable sulphur content of bunker fuel to 0.5%, which was great for human health but not so great for global warming. You see, sulphur emissions cool ...continue reading "New shipping rules aren’t responsible for our scorching summer"

The New York Times tells us today about yet more billionaire assistance propping up the not-so-down-to-earth lifestyle of Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas. In 1999 he bought a used RV that he uses to travel around the country: His Prevost Marathon cost $267,230, according to title history records obtained by The New York Times. And ...continue reading "Today brings word of yet more borrowed money for Clarence Thomas"

The chart below shows the net number of people added to corporate payrolls each month in the US. As you can see, it's been going steadily down for the past two years: I let Excel draw two trendlines through the raw data. If things level off, we get a soft landing. If a straight line ...continue reading "Net hiring has been declining for the past two years"

This is Charlie in his favorite lizard hunting grounds. It's the west side of our backyard, which is full of ferns and other low-growing little plants, which makes it a great place to slink around and pretend no one can see you.

A recent study in Sweden randomly assigned breast cancer screenings to either an AI or a human radiologist. Guess which one did better? There were 244 screen-detected cancers...in the intervention group and 203 cancers...in the control group. Compared with the control group, the screen-reading workload of radiologists was reduced by 44.3% using AI-assisted techniques. That's ...continue reading "In new study, AI finds 20% more breast cancers than human radiologists"

The Fifth Circuit Court is the most conservative in the country. But sometimes you get lucky when a three-judge panel is randomly chosen to hear your appeal. That happened today in a ruling handed down about Section 241 of Mississippi's state constitution, which disenfranchises anyone convicted of a felony—forever. This case ended up being heard ...continue reading "Appeals court rules it’s unconstitutional to strip felons of the right to vote"

If you ask ten people to define fascism, you will typically get zero real answers. This is because fascism only ever existed once and that was 80 years ago. What's more, most people have no idea what even the original Italian fascists were about, let alone the hazy variety that's been a favorite insult since ...continue reading "“Fascist” needs to be retired. Say what you really mean instead."

The American economy gained a meager 187,000 jobs last month. We need 90,000 new jobs just to keep up with population growth, which means that net job growth clocked in at an even more meager 97,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 3.5%. Overall, this is a weak but not catastrophic jobs ...continue reading "Chart of the day: Net new jobs through July"

For reasons best left unexplored, I got curious about long-term suicide rates last night and ended up going down a rabbit hole. What I discovered is that everyone is doing it wrong. Most of the charts you see are based on reports written decades ago plus CDC figures for the past couple of decades. The ...continue reading "Raw data: US suicide rates since 1900"

A lot of people, either accidentally or deliberately, have misstated a few things about Wednesday's indictment of Donald Trump for colluding with others to overturn the 2020 election results and keep himself in power. Here they are: Free speech. Even mob bosses have free speech rights. But if your local mafia don tells one of ...continue reading "Three important myths about the latest Trump indictment"

This is a panoramic view of Hollywood Boulevard right outside the Hollywood/Highland metro station. If you visit around 11 pm it's not crowded at all.

This is craziness: Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world’s largest brewer, said Thursday its U.S. sales, profit and market share had all fallen sharply in the second quarter as consumers abandoned Bud Light following a promotion it did with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney. ....The company’s market share has been stable since the last week of April through ...continue reading "Bud Light just keeps on losing customers"

Here's an interesting chart for inflation in goods: With a 4-month lag, the New York Fed's supply chain index predicts inflation in goods pretty accurately. The Kansas City Fed says the prediction is even more accurate if you use core inflation: This is intriguing both for the closeness of fit and because it strongly suggests ...continue reading "Inflation in goods will keep on declining"

Yesterday the LA Times ran a Rorschach-test of a story about Akhilesh Jha, a developer who is buying up single-family homes and replacing them with apartment buildings. Everybody hates him, but he doesn't care: In the face of a crushing housing affordability crisis and shortage of available homes, state lawmakers have approved more than 100 ...continue reading "LA developer is finding ways to build high-density housing that residents hate"

In 2023 so far, immigration courts have approved nearly half of all asylum cases they've heard: There's a remarkable spread in asylum leniency by judge and by city. In Houston, judge Bruce Imbacuan has granted asylum in 0% of the 105 cases he's heard. In San Francisco, judge Gordon Louis has granted asylum in 99% ...continue reading "Raw data: Asylum requests granted"

This is a church in Redlands. It is on a hill. Therefore it is called the Church on the Hill. I like the fact that they didn't overthink this.