Kevin Drum 🕸

Ramesh Ponnuru says that discontent over the economy can probably be explained fairly simply. It's all about declining income: Average wages are down in real terms — adjusted, that is, for inflation — since President Biden took office. They are roughly 3 percent lower than their peak in April 2020....Even when you compare wages today ...continue reading "No, wages aren’t down recently"

The start of Saturday's Cal-USC football game was delayed by a sit-down protest from a dozen or so Cal students. The announcers didn't know what the protest was about, and I just assumed it had something to do with Israel and never bothered to check it out. But no! It turns out the students were ...continue reading "The strange case of professor Ivonne del Valle"

Here is Mike Johnson's first substantive action as Speaker of the House: NEWS w @bresreports -- HOUSE REPUBLICANS' Israel aid bill is out. It offsets $14.3 billion in Israel aid with $14.3 bllion in cuts to IRS from the Inflation Reduction Act. This offset will NEVER, EVER fly. Dems will reject it out of hand. ...continue reading "Republicans have a condition on aid to Israel"

Skyscrapers at La Défense in Paris.

Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of bankrupt crypto exchange FTX and bankrupt hedge fund Alameda Research, is back on the stand in his fraud trial today. This time, though, he's being questioned by prosecutors. Things started slowly, so after lunch prosecutors tried to liven up the proceedings with questions about SBF's hair (really) and his use of ...continue reading "SBF trial continues with questions about his hair"

Ukraine is using ultra-cheap "First Person View" drones to destroy Russian tanks: A typical FPV weighs up to one kilogram, has four small engines, a battery, a frame and a camera connected wirelessly to goggles worn by a pilot operating it remotely. It can carry up to 2.5 kilograms of explosives and strike a target ...continue reading "Ukraine is providing an early peek at the future of warfare"

Joe Nocera and Bethany McLean argue in New York today that lockdowns were probably a miserable failure in the fight against COVID-19.¹ But they also say this in passing: As the United States gains more and more distance from the COVID pandemic, the perspective on what worked, and what did not, becomes not only more ...continue reading "Just how remarkable was Operation Warp Speed?"

If you're interested in details of the UAW's new contract with Ford, here's their highlight page: The two-tier pay system, where new hires are paid half the rate of veteran workers, has been all but eliminated, and will be gone completely in three years: Overall wages will increase more than the 25% initially reported, although ...continue reading "Autoworkers ended up with a 33% pay increase from Ford"

Nick Kristof believes Israel is justified in going after Hamas remorselessly: Israel has the right to defend itself and strike military targets in Gaza, and there should be strong international pressure on Hamas to release its hostages. My reporting in Gaza over the years convinces me that Gazans themselves would be much better off if ...continue reading "What does decency require in Gaza?"

Sales of both new and existing homes have fallen over the past year, but that doesn't capture the magnitude of the impact on the mortgage industry. Many of the houses still on the market are being sold for cash, and even refis are scarce because so many existing mortgages were refinanced years ago at ultra-low ...continue reading "The mortgage industry is in disastrous shape"

The Redding Rancheria, a group of three California Indian tribes, operates a casino on Highway 273 near Redding. They want to relocate and build a bigger casino a few miles south along Interstate 5, a project they've been working on for nearly 20 years: But the proposal has been buffeted by influential opponents, including the ...continue reading "“Hallowed ground” pops up to halt another development"

Conor Sen suggests that lots of people view the economy poorly because interest rates have gone up for things like credit card debt and car payments: Food and energy as a % of disposable personal income is around where it was in the mid-2010’s. Personal interest payments as a % of income are skyrocketing: pic.twitter.com/LpVZMMUTIg ...continue reading "Are Americans unhappy with the economy because of high interest rates?"

I caught some of Bill Maher's show last night, and midway through he began a rant about bureaucrats making it harder and harder to build anything. These "petty tyrants," he said, are constantly coming up with new rules that force you to jump through ever more hoops to get anything done. Maher is wrong to ...continue reading "Raw data: Construction over the past 50+ years"

The most surprising thing about this LA Times story is not discovering that California kids have lousy teeth. It's that someone has measured this in the first place: Louisiana kids have the worst teeth and Rhode Island kids have the best. Allegedly. But why? Is it fluoridation? Doesn't seem like it. The fit is lousy ...continue reading "Raw data: Quality of children’s teeth by state"

One of my pet peeves is the slow disappearance of mailboxes. I finally got around to looking at the USPS map of my neighborhood, and there is exactly one (1) mailbox left within a couple of miles of me: I know, I know: people don't mail as much stuff as they used to; mailboxes are ...continue reading "What happened to all the mailboxes?"

Commenter fortenforge interrupted catblogging today for remarks on the real world, which is a major violation of blog etiquette. Still, his comment is reasonable: "I think it's high-time for a Jamaal Bowman update now that the video was released like you asked for. Honestly it leaves me more confused than ever." The video was released ...continue reading "What was Jamaal Bowman thinking?"

Since core services are the most stubborn component of inflation, it's worth keeping an eye on. Here's the 3-month rolling average: After nine quarters at about 5%, core services inflation finally fell to 3.5% in Q2 but then stayed there in Q3. Stay tuned for Q4.

This is Charlie in the front yard looking over his shoulder at the very end of a short photo session. His pose reminds me of Vermeer's "Girl With a Pearl Earring."

According to Gallup, here is Joe Biden's approval rating over the past two years: It's been rock steady among all groups since the beginning of 2022.... ....Until this month, when it suddenly slipped by 11 points among Democrats. Why? Presumably it's related to his hawkish pro-Israel stance, which has prompted losses among the far left. ...continue reading "Biden loses support among Democrats in October"

PCE inflation settled down a little bit in September but core inflation was up: Why the sudden spike in core inflation? As usual, it was mostly in core services, which were up at an annualized rate of 5.0%. Overall, this is not good news on the inflation front. On a year-over-year basis, the headline PCE ...continue reading "Core PCE inflation spiked to 3.6% in September"