Three weeks ago Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel. Multiple thousands of rockets were launched at Israeli targets, killing hundreds, but I suppose that to some people this seemed unremarkable. Rocket attacks? It's happened before and it will happen again. That's what Iron Dome is for, isn't it? Of course the attack was far ...continue reading "The war crimes of Hamas"
At the FTX fraud trial Sam Bankman-Fried has decided to testify in his own defense. Today he's getting sort of a trial run without the jury present, and it's not going well. Here are opening snippets from the Wall Street Journal's updates throughout the day: After Bankman-Fried gave several evasive answers.... Sam Bankman-Fried said he ...continue reading "SBF is having a tough time on the witness stand"
I know I'm a bug about adjusting things for inflation, but I still wonder: Why is it that stock market charts are never adjusted for inflation? Here's the post-pandemic S&P 500 adjusted for inflation: In nominal terms, the S&P 500 is up from 3800 to 4155 since the start of 2021. In real terms it's ...continue reading "Always adjust for inflation, stock market edition"
This is the Rodin Museum in Paris. It is practically the definition of lovely and serene, right in the heart of the city. Plus there are sculptures by Rodin all over the place!
The GDP price deflator came in at an annualized rate of 3.5% for Q3. If the PCE inflation number is close to that—which it usually is—then PCE inflation for the quarter will also come in around 3.5%. Given the numbers for July and August, this suggests that PCE inflation for September was 3.1% ± 1%. ...continue reading "PCE inflation will probably come in low tomorrow"
And the winner is.......the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast. Here is the BEA's official first print of Q3 GDP: Real GDP grew a whopping 4.9% in Q3, very close to the Atlanta Fed's 5.4% forecast. Never doubt the Atlanta Fed! I assume this presents us with the usual dilemma: Is it good news because the economy ...continue reading "GDP rises a whopping 4.9% in Q3"
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is currently predicting that Q3 GDP will come in at 5.4% growth (!). The New York Fed is at 2.5%. The "blue chip consensus" has converged on 3.5%. On Thursday morning we'll get the official number from the BEA and declare a winner.
The auto strike isn't over yet, but the Wall Street Journal reports that the UAW has reached agreement on a new contract with one of the Big Three: As part of the proposed contract, Ford has agreed to give factory workers a 25% wage increase over the life of the agreement, including a 11% bump ...continue reading "Ford agrees to 25% wage increase in new UAW deal"
In 1999 Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas bought a luxury motor home for $267,000. It was financed by a loan from his friend Anthony Welters, a health insurance millionaire. In interviews, Welters said the loan had been "satisfied" in 2008 but declined to say just what that meant. So the Senate Finance Committee subpoenaed him ...continue reading "Clarence Thomas never paid for his luxury motor home"
The judge in Donald Trump's business fraud trial called Trump to the witness stand today to ask about something he'd said during a recess: The dispute began during a break in the testimony Wednesday morning. Speaking to reporters in a hallway, Trump complained that Engoron, a Democrat, is “a very partisan judge, with a person ...continue reading "Trump fined yet again for violating gag order"
According to Voteview, here's the skinny on Mike Johnson, our new Speaker of the House: He's pretty conservative, but a little less conservative than Jim Jordan. According to their ideology rankings, he's the 82nd most conservative member of the House, compared to 9th for Marjorie Taylor-Greene and 20th for Jordan.
The number of new one-family homes purchased ticked up at an annualized rate of 83,000 in September: It's remarkable that new home sales have stayed so robust in face of massively higher prices: The last time prices increased like this, during the high-interest Volcker regime of 1979-82, new home sales were cut in half and ...continue reading "New home sales just keep on rising"
Meta is being sued by 41 states for knowingly putting teens in danger. There are two big complaints. The first is that Facebook and Instagram recruit users under 13 in violation of the federal Children's Online Privacy Protection Act. This is plausible and easy to understand. But the other, bigger complaint is that Facebook and ...continue reading "Meta sued by 41 states for turning kids into addicts"
Oh come on. He only got nominated a few hours ago: 🚨🚨BREAKING — TOM EMMER has dropped out of the race for speaker. — Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 24, 2023 This was already ridiculous, but now it's positively insane. On the other hand, it's looking better and better for a Kevin McCarthy comeback!
The Wall Street Journal reports that militia groups allied with Iran have started targeting American forces: Iran in recent days has unleashed the regional militias it has spent years arming. ....Though Pentagon spokesman Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said Monday that the U.S. doesn’t have information that Iran “explicitly ordered” the recent militia attacks, ...continue reading "Iran proxies have entered the Mideast war"
According to WeCount—not to be confused with WeCount! or We Count or Wecount—abortions declined in the five months following the Dobbs decision but then started rising. The abortion rate today is higher than it was before Dobbs: The reason for this is obvious: abortions went down in states that banned them but went up in ...continue reading "Raw data: The number of abortions in the US"
Republicans first chose their majority leader to be Speaker of the House. Then they kicked him out and chose the new majority leader. Then they chose the founder of the House Freedom Caucus. Now they've chosen Tom Emmer, the majority whip. They're just going down the leadership list. In case you're wondering, next up is ...continue reading "Whose turn is it next to be Speaker nominee?"
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