Kevin Drum 🕸

A new paper in Nature claims that "disruptive" discoveries in science have been on a downward trend over the past few decades. The authors use a measure of disruptiveness that basically measures whether anyone cares about previous work once the disruptive paper has been published: The intuition is that if a paper or patent is ...continue reading "We are all waiting restlessly for artificial intelligence"

If it's inflation day, it's also earnings day. Average weekly earnings were down -18 cents from November, which comes to +71 cents after adjusting for (negative!) inflation: Unfortunately, this is good news. Weak wage growth might be bad for workers, but it's good for inflation. Along with the great CPI numbers, this should go a ...continue reading "Weekly wages were down 18 cents in December"

I've got some good news and some bad news for December inflation: The good news is that CPI inflation was negative in December. Prices were down 0.9% from their level in November. Sadly, the core CPI went up a little bit and now stands at 3.7% on an annualized basis. This is still not a ...continue reading "Inflation went negative in December"

Marc Thiessen today: If Trump’s classified document mishandling was ‘irresponsible,’ so is Biden’s Nice try, Marc, but no one has ever cared very much if a few classified documents were accidentally taken from the White House when a president (or vice president) moved. Sure, we'd all prefer they be more careful, but it's not that ...continue reading "Joe Biden did not obstruct the return of classified documents"

I suppose it's pointless to keep repeating this since no one ever listens, but can we please stop this nonsense? The Fed May Finally Be Winning the War on Inflation. But at What Cost? [Neel] Kashkari insists...taming inflation must be the priority. “The sooner we take the medicine,” he says, “the less painful it will ...continue reading "We are still a few months away from the Fed having any effect on inflation"

Moonrise, Indio, California.

The Russian army in Ukraine is changing command again. They are now on their third leader: February, 2022: Army General Aleksandr Dvornikov, the "Butcher of Syria," leads the Russian invasion of Ukraine. October 2022: General of the Army Sergey Surovikin, aka "General Armageddon," replaces Dvornikov. January 2023: General of the Army Valery Gerasimov, also Chief ...continue reading "Putin fires another general"

American conservatives are contemptuous of solar and wind power but love nuclear power. They have no particular opinion, as near as I can tell, about tidal or geothermal power. Why?

Republicans, it seems, are dead set on forcing another debt ceiling crisis later this year. Kevin McCarthy might or might not want this, but the lunatic faction of the GOP bullied him into promising a showdown in order to win their votes for Speaker. So we can expect yet another tedious game of chicken sometime ...continue reading "How to handle the coming debt ceiling standoff"

Tyler Cowen points me today to a new study that investigates whether the gender wage gap is affected by family leave laws. The basic strategy is to look at the gender gap by state and compare wages before and after family leave acts were passed. That's a sensible approach. Long story short, the authors conclude ...continue reading "Do family leave acts kill progress on the gender wage gap?"

Jesus Christ: I'm not sure there's been a less silenced group in all of history than modern conservatives. They have their own TV network. They have the entire AM radio dial. They have social media networks for their own private use. They have churches, CEOs, and think tanks at their beck and call. They own ...continue reading "American conservatives are the least silenced people on the planet"

This is a gorgeous great blue heron that I photographed during my vacation in Virginia. But this was the one that got away. As I approached it for the first time, it flew away before I could get my camera ready—and it was absolutely magnificent in flight. The best I've ever seen. So I moved ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

WARNING! As you probably know, a few classified documents were found last year in Joe Biden's old office while it was being cleaned out. The National Archives was immediately informed and the documents were all turned over. For some reason, though, the story only broke yesterday. Lots of Democrats are now in a panic over ...continue reading "The Biden document story is a nothingburger"

Hey, lookie here: California needs a warrior in the Senate—to stand up to special interests, fight the dangerous imbalance in our economy, and hold so-called leaders like Mitch McConnell accountable for rigging our democracy. Today, I'm proud to announce my candidacy for the U.S. Senate in 2024. pic.twitter.com/X1CSE8T12B — Katie Porter (@katieporteroc) January 10, 2023 ...continue reading "Katie Porter is running for the Senate"

Just for the lulz, here are inflation expectations over the next 30 years as estimated by the Cleveland Fed: Everything is fine. There is absolutely nothing worrisome in any of this. FWIW, I think near-term inflation will be lower than this. Rates are already pretty low right now and are going to get lower as ...continue reading "My crystal ball says . . . 1% inflation by the end of the year"

There's no point in keeping this survey open any longer, and I'm afraid it's bad news for my letter writer this morning: "nothingburger" turns out to be a huge fan favorite, corralling more than 80% of the vote. That's almost as good as Putin.

I get letters: It’s flabbergasting to me that such a thoughtful thinker and talented writer would use this imbecilic expression “nothingburger.” Thanks! Thoughtful and talented are great things to be. But what about nothingburger? Is it imbecilic? Or is it a great slang term? I think there's no way to resolve this except by polling ...continue reading "A quick nothingburger quiz"

A 34-year-old Navy lieutenant is currently serving a three-year term for manslaughter in a Japanese prison. Here is a Wall Street Journal editorial explaining how he got there: Lt. Ridge Alkonis, assigned to the guided-missile destroyer the USS Benfold in Yokosuka, was driving his family back from a trip to Mt. Fuji in May 2021 ...continue reading "The Wall Street Journal has a problem with the truth"

Here's the impact of the first bill that Republicans passed today: I'm just kidding, of course. The real name of the bill is the Family and Small Business Taxpayer Protection Act. Because why not? Republicans can call it anything they want regardless of what it actually does. And what it does is simple: It repeals ...continue reading "First Republican act of the new Congress is to blow up the deficit"

Over at National Review, Dan McLaughlin joins the throng of conservatives who are crowing today over a new study that owns the libs big time. Remember all that Russian influence that helped Donald Trump get elected in 2016? Never happened: Today, however, the Post‘s own cybersecurity columnist Tim Starks offers a reality check: "Russian influence operations ...continue reading "Was Russian influence on the 2016 election just a big nothingburger?"