Kevin Drum 🕸

Why is core inflation (i.e., underlying inflation not affected by food and energy) so high? Most analysts cite three reasons: First, there's high government spending, especially from the January 2021 stimulus bill. But that's back to normal: Second, there was increased consumer demand after the COVID-19 pandemic settled down. That was a problem in 2021, ...continue reading "What’s causing core inflation?"

I was up all night doing astronomy stuff and forgot to post a lunchtime photo today! In order to restore the proper clockwork of the universe, here's a photo of young French lovers on the Paris metro actually taken around lunchtime. That's a rare thing for lunchtime photos.

Maggie Haberman has been covering Donald Trump forever, and for four years she covered him in the White House for the New York Times. Naturally she wrote a book after he left office, and lefties have been up in arms about the fact that she revealed things which perhaps should have been revealed at the ...continue reading "BREAKING NEWS: Donald Trump is an idiot"

The Washington Post has yet another story today about the calamitous shortage of US public school teachers in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. It starts off with the headaches faced by Carolyn Stewart, the superintendent of the Bullhead City School District in Arizona: The 2,300 students in her district had been back in school ...continue reading "Here’s another look at our national teacher shortage"

I guess we're followers this time, not leaders, but as of 2023 jaywalking will no longer be against the law in California—as long as you do it safely: Gov. Gavin Newsom on Friday signed the “Freedom to Walk” bill sponsored by Assemblyman Phil Ting (D-San Francisco). The law, which goes into effect on Jan. 1, ...continue reading "In California, jaywalking is no longer naywalking"

The New York Times reveals why the Supreme Court has become so distrusted of late: The actual cause of its historic unpopularity is no secret. Over the past several years, the court has been transformed into a judicial arm of the Republican Party. Yep. The modern Republican Party consists of three branches: the Supreme Court, ...continue reading "The Supreme Court is now the third branch of the Republican Party"

Charlie Cooke really really doesn't like President Biden's student loan forgiveness program: “I consider this to be a constitutional crisis,” he said. “I think that from start to finish, we are witnessing a president test the established legal order of the United States. . . . His broader party know that he’s not allowed to. ...continue reading "Let’s please cut out the Tyrant Biden nonsense"

The Wall Street Journal, like all of us, is puzzled by the economy. Why is it that even though economic growth is flat, companies are still trying to hire more workers? A persistent economic puzzle is why labor is still so tight amid slowing growth....Monthly payrolls have grown an average of 438,000 from January through ...continue reading "Employment has recovered to pre-pandemic levels almost everywhere"

Charlie isn't the only cat around here who likes to hide in the backyard bushes. Hilbert likes it too, but he has a harder time since he's bigger and less camouflaged than Charlie. Plus, to be honest, he doesn't seem to be trying really hard, does he?

The Europeans are always ahead of us with their inflation data because they're willing to release "flash" estimates before the month is even over. For September, Eurostat reported annual inflation of 10%, which is bad enough, but that's year-over-year and doesn't capture their recent big increase. If you look instead at the monthly data, inflation ...continue reading "Eurozone inflation skyrocketed in September"

In addition to its monthly inflation figures, the BEA also released personal spending data today, and it was as boring as it could possibly be. Adjusted for inflation, disposable personal income went up 0.9% and personal spending went up 1.2% (both of these are month-to-month changes that have been annualized). Here's what this looks like ...continue reading "Income and expenditures were up slightly in August"

Core PCE is the inflation measure the Fed cares the most about but nobody else cares about at all. The LA Times, Washington Post, and New York Times barely even mention it today, while the Wall Street Journal leads with data about consumer expenditures, with PCE inflation playing second fiddle. But here it gets pride ...continue reading "Core PCE inflation jumps higher in August"

Here's the latest on mortgage rates: For a while, when rates skyrocket like this, people rush to buy houses before they go up even more. But eventually rates get too high and mortgages simply become unaffordable for many people. But it takes a while. Back in the bad old days of 1981 mortgage rates rose ...continue reading "Mortgage rates just keep going up, up, and up some more"

This was taken at sunset at our local Greek fair a couple of months ago. It was not actually this dark, of course. The enhanced contrast was provided by Photoshop.

Jon Chait says that Republicans are planning once again to hold the economy hostage by refusing to raise the debt ceiling. That could well be. They've done it before and today's Republicans are even crazier than the ones we thought were the ultimate in craziness ten years ago. Chait thinks the answer is for Democrats ...continue reading "Time to raise the debt limit by a quadrillion dollars?"

Here's a Rorschach test for you: Stuck on the Streets of San Francisco in a Driverless Car A reporter and a photographer went for a ride in an experimental autonomous vehicle operated by the General Motors subsidiary Cruise. There were bumps in the road. You can legitimately read this story two ways: Driverless cars are ...continue reading "Driverless cars: A Rorschach test"

"What happened to monkeypox?" asks the Washington Post. Here's the answer in the US: This is why you hardly hear about monkeypox anymore. It peaked in mid-August and it's been fading away ever since. Right now the infection rate has fallen by more than half from its peak, and in the entire time since June ...continue reading "How’s the monkeypox epidemic going?"

My favorite desert spot for astrophotography is a three-hour drive away, and I'm just not always up for that. I've been meaning to find a compromise spot that's closer to home, so last week I checked out Palomar Mountain. It turned out to be excellent. It's not quite as dark as the desert, but the ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is likely to win Brazil's next election: Lula, as he is widely known, appears poised to win Brazil’s presidential election. The question, polls suggest, isn’t whether he will beat far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but when. Recent surveys have shown Lula with about 45% of the vote compared with 35% for ...continue reading "Far-right wacko politics is losing ground lately"

We sure do like to bitch about flying around in airplanes. Here's the data for the past four years: We're up from about 1,000 complaints per month in 2019 to an average of 4-5,000 complaints per month in 2022. Is airline service really five times worse than it used to be? Most of the objective ...continue reading "Raw data: We sure like to gripe about flying"