Kevin Drum 🕸

Why does so much OpenAI drama happen late at night? We have reached an agreement in principle for Sam Altman to return to OpenAI as CEO with a new initial board of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D'Angelo. We are collaborating to figure out the details. Thank you so much for your patience ...continue reading "Sam is back"

Last week Media Matters published a piece showing advertisements on Twitter being served up next to antisemitic posts. Elon Musk said the claim was wrong and filed a lawsuit. As far as I'm concerned, this is what SLAPP laws are for, and they don't get used nearly enough. Musk's suit is nothing more than an ...continue reading "Free speech and the state of Texas"

The more time that goes by, the more sorry I am about the failure of the 2000 Camp David Summit. It was the last chance for even a minimal chance at Middle Eastern peace and a Palestinian state. Instead we got another intifada on one side and a reinvigorated dismantling of the West Bank on ...continue reading "I am still mourning the failure of the Camp David Summit"

How is Joe Biden doing these days? Courtesy of CNN, here are his approval ratings from a variety of national polls over the past few months: From August through October Biden's approval dropped about 1.5% per month. Since the Israel-Gaza war broke out a month ago, his approval has improved by about half a percent. ...continue reading "Raw data: Joe Biden’s approval level before and after the Israel-Gaza war"

Some slender swans swimming serenely south on the silken Seine.

Just remember: they're all crooks. All of them: Changpeng Zhao, founder of the world’s largest crypto exchange, agreed to plead guilty to federal money laundering charges and step down as chief executive of Binance, which will pay a $4.3 billion fine, according to court documents. ....Court papers filed by the government say that Binance chose ...continue reading "Yet another crypto exchange goes down"

After a brief rebound in February, sales of existing homes just keep going lower and lower: In January 2021, existing homes sold at an annualized rate of 6.6 million. They've fallen 42% since then, due largely to higher interest rates. Unless you can pay cash, selling your home and moving to a new one means ...continue reading "Existing home sales continue to drop"

Total factor productivity is, roughly, productivity gains due to technological advances. We didn't get much of it in 2022: The entertainment industry apparently adopted new technology with tremendous enthusiasm. The mining industry didn't.

The New York Times has an intensely frustrating piece about driverless cars today. Most of the focus is on San Francisco, and the story includes three safety statistics: In San Francisco, more than 600 self-driving vehicle incidents were documented from June 2022 to June 2023.... Last year, the number of 911 calls from San Francisco ...continue reading "The New York Times fails a safety test"

Republicans have recently backburnered the notion of cutting Social Security benefits, so Politico reports that some Democrats are telling Joe Biden to broaden the fight: Progressives have pitched Biden officials and Democratic leaders in recent months on endorsing a plan to expand Americans’ Social Security benefits, according to several people involved in the informal discussions. ...continue reading "Should we increase Social Security benefits?"

In the LA Times, Brian Merchant writes that OpenAI itself isn't the only thing that self-destructed this weekend: All the while, something else went up in flames: the fiction that anything other than the profit motive is going to govern how AI gets developed and deployed. Concerns about “AI safety” are going to be steamrolled ...continue reading "Yeah, AI is going to be (very, very) big business"

Drive-thru beer. This is what the world needs more of.

A few days ago I was fascinated to see something new on the BEA calendar: "Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account, U.S. and States, 2022." Wuzzat? Sadly, it turns out to have nothing to do with recreation satellites. It's the "satellite account"—whatever that is—for outdoor recreation. Here are the most and least outdoorsy states in the country: ...continue reading "Chart of the day: The most outdoorsy state is . . ."

Private citizens have always been allowed to file discrimination suits regarding voting rights. But no longer, at least in the upper Midwest: The Eighth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, in a 2-to-1 ruling, held that private plaintiffs can’t bring legal claims under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.... [The ruling] said the Arkansas branch ...continue reading "FLASH: Conservative judges rule against NAACP"

The OpenAI affair just keeps getting weirder. The ringleader of the decision to fire CEO Sam Altman has always seemed to be Ilya Sutskever, one of OpenAI's founders and its chief scientist. But now he has regrets: More than 500 employees of OpenAI have threatened to leave the company if the current board doesn’t resign ...continue reading "OpenAI workers threaten to quit en masse"

According to a study reported by the Wall Street Journal, everyone would like more money. But how much more money? They displayed the answer in absolute dollars, but I converted it to percentages for a clearer look: Assuming this is meaningful—which I'm not sure of—this is an interesting U shape. People become more satisfied with ...continue reading "Money and happiness"

What. The. Fuck? Sam Altman won’t return as CEO of OpenAI, despite efforts by the company’s executives to bring him back, according to co-founder and board director Ilya Sutskever....Emmett Shear, co-founder of Amazon-owned video streaming site Twitch, will take over as interim CEO, Sutskever said. This is from The Information, but it's all over the ...continue reading "OpenAI hires interim CEO to replace Sam Altman"

The Washington Post describes Argentina's recent past: For only the second time in its history, Argentina has seen 10 years without economic growth. During that decade, poverty rates shot up from 28 percent to more than 40 percent. Now, for the first time ever, even formal workers in Argentina’s economy are below the poverty line. ...continue reading "Argentina elects its own Donald Trump"

During the Republican debate a couple of weeks ago, I had a question about a peculiar commercial halfway through: what is "Biden's whale EZ pass lane"? Today, Politico finally—finally!—answers me: A new television commercial from a GOP-linked conservative group accuses Biden of raising gasoline prices by creating an “E-ZPass lane for whales in the Gulf.” ...continue reading "Answered! What is an “EZ pass for whales”?"

The Office of Management and Budget issued a new set of guidelines for regulatory analysis a couple of weeks ago, and it's surprisingly important. It's also pretty technical, so hang on. The rules are set out in Circular A-4, one of OMB's 136 circulars, and the first thing it addresses is the discount rate that ...continue reading "Circular A-4 is the most important rule you’ve never heard of"