Kevin Drum 🕸

Adjusted for inflation, hourly earnings declined at an annual rate of 5.3% in August. However, the average number of hours worked rose, so weekly earnings were down only 1.2%. Weekly earnings are now 0.3% above their pre-pandemic level. For blue-collar workers, hourly earnings were down 4.9% and weekly earnings were down 1.5%.

August CPI numbers were released this morning, and both the core and headline rates spiked considerably: The spike in the headline rate was expected due to rising gasoline prices, but the spike in the core rate is harder to explain. Air fares were up a lot, but there were no big increases elsewhere. The so-called ...continue reading "CPI shoots up in August"

I don't quite remember what got me started on this, but a couple of hours ago I ran into a report about stress from the American Psychological Association. It reported that stress was simply overwhelming these days: A quarter of all Americans report feeling so stressed on most days that "they can barely function." Among ...continue reading "Are most young women “overwhelmed” by stress? I’m skeptical."

OMG OMG OMG: On Wednesday, Apple revealed that its newest product line, the iPhone 15, will drop the company’s proprietary Lightning port in favor of European-mandated USB-C ports. The company’s newest iPhones feature a charging plug that is slightly bigger and rounder than its predecessor but capable of delivering a faster charge. Is there any ...continue reading "Apple announces connector change"

Rep. Scott Perry, chair of the Freedom Caucus and one of the primary players in Donald Trump’s attempt to overturn the election, took questions today about the House impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden. He got red faced when a reporter had the gall to ask what "actual evidence" Republicans had, as opposed to mere allegations: ...continue reading "Scott Perry explains impeachment"

The Census Bureau released poverty figures for 2022 today: The official poverty rate is based solely on family income. It declined continuously during the 2014-19 economic expansion, and since then has been about flat. The current official poverty rate is 11.5%, slightly down from last year. The Supplemental Poverty Rate is a better measure that ...continue reading "Measured correctly, poverty was up 60% in 2022"

This is no ordinary blackbird. This is a French blackbird. Round up 23 more of them and you can make a pie.

I suppose this is hardly unexpected, but even so: Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday directed top congressional Republicans to open an impeachment inquiry into President Biden, blowing past G.O.P. divisions as he worked to appease far-right lawmakers who have threatened to oust him amid a pitched fight over spending. Mr. McCarthy said he would task ...continue reading "As expected, Republicans open pointless impeachment inquiry"

The Washington Post says that counties with the highest level of legal opioid use from 2006-2013 (i.e., oxycontin) now have the highest level of fentanyl overdoses: According to the Post, "The data confirms what’s long been known about the arc of the nation’s addiction crisis: Users first got hooked by pain pills saturating the nation, ...continue reading "Did the oxy crackdown lead to the fentanyl crisis?"

"Employer costs for employee compensation" is yet another estimate of worker pay from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It's based on a quarterly survey of 35,000 observations from 8,500 establishments. For some reason, federal workers aren't included. Here are results through the second quarter of 2023, adjusted for inflation: In addition to wages, total comp ...continue reading "Chart of the day: Employee compensation declined 2.7% in Q2"

Here's a chart of PCE core inflation since 2021: The dashed red line is three months after the American Rescue Plan was passed. This is the absolute earliest it could have affected inflation, and by then the inflation rate had already spiked from 2% to 7%. It's really not plausible that ARP could have caused ...continue reading "Raw data: Inflation since 2021"

Here's yet more evidence of what happens to people who marinate in Fox News, Donald Trump, talk radio, and the Wall Street Journal editorial page. They go cuckoo: Republican voters are increasingly anxious about COVID amid a swirl of unfounded claims on the right that the federal government is preparing a mass reimposition of restrictions. ...continue reading "Worst. Campaign. Strategy. Ever."

This is a mosaic on the ceiling of Sacré Coeur Basilica in Paris.

Good news for workers in California: Fast-food companies agreed over the weekend to pull a California referendum off next year’s ballot that sought to reverse a landmark worker-protections law, forgoing a costly political fight with labor unions over employee pay. The deal will result in an increase in the minimum wage for fast-food workers to ...continue reading "California fast food workers are finally making $15 per hour*"

Over at National Review, John Noonan condemns the fact that we have failed to evacuate every last Afghan who ever worked for the United States: In our hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan — perhaps the most cynical display of national treachery I have witnessed in my lifetime — we left behind multitudes of innocent Afghans who ...continue reading "Our withdrawal from Afghanistan was a success"

Tyler Cowen points to a chart from Ted Gioia and Chris Dalla Riva that shows the share of popular songs written in a minor key: "Why is music getting sadder?" asks Gioia, but I'm not sure I agree with the premise. It's true that minor keys are associated with sadness, but they shouldn't be. I ...continue reading "Chart of the day: Songs in a minor key"

Ross Douthat joins a cast of millions today to ask: Why Is Joe Biden So Unpopular? The answer is: he's not. How often do I have to post this chart before the message gets through? Here are our last four presidents at week 133 of their first terms:¹ ¹Excluding George W. Bush, as usual, because ...continue reading "For the last time: Joe Biden is not unpopular"

A new poll says that only 28% of Californians support cash reparations for Black residents. But this number is fairly meaningless because it masks partisan differences that are even bigger than usual: Democrats: 43% support Republicans: 3% support I myself have long believed that cash reparations are a misguided idea. I have four primary reasons: ...continue reading "Even in blue California, most oppose cash reparations to Black residents"

COVID is back: Fauci: We ‘need to be prepared’ for likely Covid uptick this winter https://t.co/NSJP0NqjUz — POLITICO (@politico) September 10, 2023 The good news is that after three years, at least we know how to handle it. We'll be OK as long as no one wears a mask; we stick close to each other; ...continue reading "How to handle a COVID surge"

Marjorie Taylor Greene says Joe Biden is obviously guilty of.......something, but that's small potatoes. We need to move slowly and deliberately on impeachment in order to unearth the real crimes: It has become evident that there is a vast amount of people in previous administrations, this administration, and federal agencies that all worked diligently to ...continue reading "Who are the traitors defending Joe Biden?"