This is crazy: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is still forecasting that GDP growth in Q3 will be a red hot 4.9%. It was one thing to dismiss this early in the quarter, but as the model gets more and more data to work with it becomes more accurate. At this point, Q3 is just ...continue reading "Has the economy really grown 5% in the third quarter?"
I only managed to watch half of the Republican debate tonight before I gave up. What a shitshow. The lesson they all seem to have taken from the last one is that they should yell over each other a lot. That's all I've got. During the small portion I watched I heard little aside from ...continue reading "Tonight’s Republican debate was a shitshow"
After hearing Republicans tonight talk about the supposedly epic crime wave turning America into a hellhole, it occurred to me that maybe the NCVS had been updated through 2022. And it has! Given the current parlous state of the FBI's crime figures, it's the best source we have for national crime statistics. Here's the latest: ...continue reading "Raw data: Crime is back to pre-COVID levels"
While we're all watching the latest Republican debate, I want to take the chance to repeat a chart from this morning: The actual tuition paid by college students, once you account for standard discounts, has barely changed over the past 30 years. It's up 13% at private universities and down 10% at public universities.
What dome should I put up today? How about a nuclear dome? Here are the two containment domes at the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station, taken on a hazy late afternoon. It's a funny thing: San Onofre was shut down a decade ago, but all the high-tension lines coming from the station are still up ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"
Why are Republicans declining to call for Sen. Robert Menendez to resign? The charges against him are pretty serious, after all. Aaron Blake explains: Because Republicans believe standing by Trump is politically necessary, because they really wanted Roy Moore to hold a key Senate seat, and because they need the vote of Rep. George Santos ...continue reading "Republicans can’t afford to attack Robert Menendez"
I suppose everyone is tired of me posting this chart, but sometimes I feel like I should put it up every day: Joe Biden's approval level is totally normal for this point in time. He's a few points less popular than Bill Clinton was at 140 weeks, but that's it. Everything is fine.
ChatGPT can now hold ordinary spoken conversations with people, and apparently it works pretty well. It can also talk about pictures you show it. And this: ChatGPT can now browse the internet to provide you with current and authoritative information, complete with direct links to sources. It is no longer limited to data before September ...continue reading "ChatGPT is no longer stuck in the past"
I have had my mind blown. Over at National Affairs, Dan Currell says that college tuition hasn't actually gone up over the past few decades: In the late 1980s and early 1990s, colleges discovered that the appearance of high tuition was good for marketing. Positioning one's school as "almost as expensive as Harvard" created a ...continue reading "The cost of college has barely changed in the past 30 years"
In case you've forgotten, Donald Trump has more than just his four criminal trials to contend with. There's also a continuing civil trial over his sexual assault on E. Jean Carroll, as well as yet another civil case brought by New York's attorney general over years of business fraud by Trump and his two adult ...continue reading "Trump & Sons guilty of fraudulently inflating property values"
Over at National Review, Noah Rothman takes on the question of why so many people don't believe the Biden economy is actually pretty good. His answer is simple: It's because the Biden economy isn't pretty good, and the only ones who don't get that are sheltered elites who obsess over BLS statistics. Ordinary people, for ...continue reading "“Americans” don’t think the economy is bad. Republicans do."
Let's make this dome week. Yesterday I featured the observatory dome of the 200-inch telescope at Mount Palomar, so today is something completely different: the glass dome of the Galleries Lafayette department store in Paris. This picture was taken from directly below the dome, and it's actually a panorama stitched together in Photoshop. I couldn't ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"
Via Atrios, I see that Donald Trump will be in Detroit tomorrow to talk to strik— Wait. I'm getting an update: Trump will be in a suburb speaking at Drake Enterprises. Which is not an auto plant. It's a truck parts supplier. A non-union one. And the event is being organized by the anti-union Right ...continue reading "Here’s what Donald Trump is doing in Detroit"
The San Francisco Fed has updated its analysis of COVID-era savings based on more recent data, and it now concludes that the money saved from pandemic relief programs is pretty much gone: The SF Fed estimates that only $190 billion is left in excess savings—and the odds are good that even that is mostly in ...continue reading "San Francisco Fed says pandemic savings are all gone"
Here's the annual growth rate of the largest countries in the world: Of the top eight countries, all have per capita GDPs under $15,000 except for the US, which clocks in at $60,000. Who's your bet to lead this list 30 years from now?
The Supreme Court has told Alabama to sod off: The Supreme Court on Tuesday refused Alabama’s request to reinstate a congressional map drawn by Republican lawmakers that had only one majority-Black district, paving the way for a new map to be put in place before the 2024 election. ....The court’s order gave no reasons, which ...continue reading "Supreme Court tells Alabama Republicans to stand down"
The Wall Street Journal reports that consumers are finally feeling the effects of high interest rates. They are buying fewer houses (true), fewer cars (not really true), and loading up their credit cards: “Consumers are carrying much higher balances than they were two years ago,” said Charlie Wise, head of global research and consulting at ...continue reading "Consumers are not loading up their credit cards"
We need new drugs to fight the surge of antibiotic-resistant bugs that have been making the rounds in recent years. And we have them! But there's a catch: Six startups have won Food and Drug Administration approval for new antibiotics since 2017. All have filed for bankruptcy, been acquired or are shutting down. The problem ...continue reading "Superbugs are gaining ground via economics, not evolution"
There are lots of people who think Donald Trump is a boor but plan to vote for him anyway. I'm not talking here about the dead-enders who worship Trump, but the center-right voters who really don't like him but will hold their noses and mark their ballot for him even so. Why? Because the alternative ...continue reading "It’s all about policy"
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