Kevin Drum 🕸

A team of researchers released a paper recently (here) that tries to quantify how much different digital services are worth to their users. For example, here's the relative value of nine different services: Google search was the top service, beating out even meeting your friends in person. TikTok, oddly, has a low value despite its ...continue reading "New paper suggests online services are worth $5,000 to the average American"

As we were driving up Highway 160 to Durango a few weeks ago we could see the Ship Rock in the far distance. Ship Rock is an "iconic and religiously significant Navajo Nation monadnock that rises over 1,500 ft into the air," but from a distance I remarked that it looked like the Emerald City ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

During Donald Trump's presidency crime skyrocketed. Mental illness among teens soared. In Charlottesville racists and Proud Boys rioted. American soldiers continued to be killed in an Afghanistan war that seemed endless. North Korea tested new missiles that could reach the US mainland. Foreign leaders fretted that America could no longer be trusted. Thousands of Trump ...continue reading "A brief comparison of Donald Trump’s America vs. Joe Biden’s"

Last year the Supreme Court ruled that gun restrictions are constitutional only if they are based on America's "historical tradition" of firearm regulation. So how about a law that bans gun ownership by people who are subject to restraining orders for domestic violence? The Fifth Circuit Court, home of conservative wet dreams, naturally ruled that ...continue reading "Supreme Court looks ready to ban guns from domestic abusers"

A few days ago the Washington Post ran a story about some high school teachers in Washington state who wanted to stop teaching To Kill a Mockingbird. It all started when one of the teachers was listening to a podcast: The Black hosts of the show joked that “Mockingbird” ranked with Confederate monuments as something ...continue reading "Is it time to put “To Kill a Mockingbird” out to pasture?"

Los Angeles has been trying to do something with the Los Angeles River forever. But it's hard, partly because renovation is expensive and partly because it seems like every single human being in the city has a different idea about what should be done. For example, the LA Times reports today about one teensy-tiny part ...continue reading "The tale of the dog park and the bike path"

A study last month done by Swiss Re for Waymo suggests that self-driving Waymo cars are far, far safer than human drivers: I have long recommended that if you want to evaluate the state of autonomous cars, look at Waymo. Forget about Tesla or Cruise or any of the others. They may do certain things ...continue reading "Waymo’s driverless cars are really safe"

The New York Times has a piece today about people whose bank accounts are suddenly closed with no warning. The reason is that they've done something that triggers one or more Suspicious Activity Reports from their bank. The nature of the SARs is never revealed, but they often lead to banks deciding not to do ...continue reading "Suspicious activity in America has skyrocketed"

The Washington Post says today that a second Trump term would be all about revenge and more revenge: In private, Trump has told advisers and friends in recent months that he wants the Justice Department to investigate onetime officials and allies who have become critical of his time in office, including his former chief of ...continue reading "What the United States needs is more revenge"

Here's the percentage of the workforce employed by the federal government: It dropped from 3.5% of the total workforce in 1955 to 1.4% of the workforce at the end of 1999. Since January 2000 it's increased from 1.44% to 1.49%. Aside from the decennial census blips, employment generally goes up during and after recessions and ...continue reading "Raw data: Federal government workers"

Egypt has been a full partner with Israel in the Gaza blockade ever since it began. They have also been resolute about banning immigration from Gaza to Egypt, including refugees in the current war. Why? Over at New York, Benjamin Hart asks Steven Cook: I think that the Egyptian position on this is a principled ...continue reading "Egypt and the Gaza Strip"

Jon Chait remarks on a phrase that's become common on the right recently: “The Federalist Society doesn’t know what time it is,” said Russell T. Vought, the former Trump budget director who is orchestrating his planning.... A conservative who knows what time it is recognizes that the left is poised to permanently seize power, and ...continue reading "Do you know what time it is?"

Damon Linker today in the New York Times: A coalition of intellectual catastrophists on the American right is ... giving the next generation of Republican officeholders, senior advisers, judges and appointees explicit permission and encouragement to believe that the country is on the verge of collapse. Some catastrophists take it a step further and suggest ...continue reading "Right-wing catastrophism is now an intellectual movement too"

No special reason for posting this. I just felt like it. It shows primary federal spending (i.e., not including interest) and revenue since 2000: In the early 2000s spending and revenue were in sync. Then, thanks partly to a mild recession and partly to George Bush's tax cuts, revenue fell. The same thing happened again ...continue reading "Raise taxes or cut Social Security and Medicare? Those are your choices."

Over at National Review, Andy McCarthy wanders ever further down the rabbit hole of abject lunacy: On the latest episode of his podcast The McCarthy Report, National Review Institute fellow Andy McCarthy reacted to the revelation that Joe Biden’s brother, James, wrote him a $40,000 check when a $400,000 payment from a Chinese concern came ...continue reading "National Review: Biden is a clandestine agent of China"

I saw yet another article today about the "deeply unpopular" Joe Biden. You know what that means: I'm going to put up the latest version of The Chart: Are you tired of seeing this? Tough. I'm going to keep posting it over and over and over until either (a) the nonsense about Biden's unpopularity stops, ...continue reading "President Biden is not especially unpopular, part 1 million"

Here is Hilbert playing with his string toy last night as Charlie looks on. This is by far their favoritest toy—aside from each other, of course.

The Guardian today writes about the possibility that AI will eventually take over nearly all jobs: Elon Musk’s suggestion to Rishi Sunak that society could reach a point where “no job is needed” and “you can do a job if you want a job … but the AI will do everything” revives a debate on ...continue reading "The end of work is coming. Deal with it."

For the past half century, an increase in the unemployment rate of half a point from a new low has been an unfailing indicator that a recession is either underway or very close: There are no exceptions to this rule. If it doesn't happen, no recession. If it does happen, recession. This month marks a ...continue reading "Is a recession getting close?"

The American economy gained 150,000 jobs last month. We need 90,000 new jobs just to keep up with population growth, which means that net job growth clocked in at an anemic 60,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate ticked up again to 3.9%. The jobs estimates for August and September were revised downward by 79,000. The ...continue reading "Chart of the day: Net new jobs through October"