Conor Sen suggests that lots of people view the economy poorly because interest rates have gone up for things like credit card debt and car payments: Food and energy as a % of disposable personal income is around where it was in the mid-2010’s. Personal interest payments as a % of income are skyrocketing: pic.twitter.com/LpVZMMUTIg ...continue reading "Are Americans unhappy with the economy because of high interest rates?"
I caught some of Bill Maher's show last night, and midway through he began a rant about bureaucrats making it harder and harder to build anything. These "petty tyrants," he said, are constantly coming up with new rules that force you to jump through ever more hoops to get anything done. Maher is wrong to ...continue reading "Raw data: Construction over the past 50+ years"
The most surprising thing about this LA Times story is not discovering that California kids have lousy teeth. It's that someone has measured this in the first place: Louisiana kids have the worst teeth and Rhode Island kids have the best. Allegedly. But why? Is it fluoridation? Doesn't seem like it. The fit is lousy ...continue reading "Raw data: Quality of children’s teeth by state"
One of my pet peeves is the slow disappearance of mailboxes. I finally got around to looking at the USPS map of my neighborhood, and there is exactly one (1) mailbox left within a couple of miles of me: I know, I know: people don't mail as much stuff as they used to; mailboxes are ...continue reading "What happened to all the mailboxes?"
Commenter fortenforge interrupted catblogging today for remarks on the real world, which is a major violation of blog etiquette. Still, his comment is reasonable: "I think it's high-time for a Jamaal Bowman update now that the video was released like you asked for. Honestly it leaves me more confused than ever." The video was released ...continue reading "What was Jamaal Bowman thinking?"
Since core services are the most stubborn component of inflation, it's worth keeping an eye on. Here's the 3-month rolling average: After nine quarters at about 5%, core services inflation finally fell to 3.5% in Q2 but then stayed there in Q3. Stay tuned for Q4.
This is Charlie in the front yard looking over his shoulder at the very end of a short photo session. His pose reminds me of Vermeer's "Girl With a Pearl Earring."
According to Gallup, here is Joe Biden's approval rating over the past two years: It's been rock steady among all groups since the beginning of 2022.... ....Until this month, when it suddenly slipped by 11 points among Democrats. Why? Presumably it's related to his hawkish pro-Israel stance, which has prompted losses among the far left. ...continue reading "Biden loses support among Democrats in October"
PCE inflation settled down a little bit in September but core inflation was up: Why the sudden spike in core inflation? As usual, it was mostly in core services, which were up at an annualized rate of 5.0%. Overall, this is not good news on the inflation front. On a year-over-year basis, the headline PCE ...continue reading "Core PCE inflation spiked to 3.6% in September"
Three weeks ago Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel. Multiple thousands of rockets were launched at Israeli targets, killing hundreds, but I suppose that to some people this seemed unremarkable. Rocket attacks? It's happened before and it will happen again. That's what Iron Dome is for, isn't it? Of course the attack was far ...continue reading "The war crimes of Hamas"
At the FTX fraud trial Sam Bankman-Fried has decided to testify in his own defense. Today he's getting sort of a trial run without the jury present, and it's not going well. Here are opening snippets from the Wall Street Journal's updates throughout the day: After Bankman-Fried gave several evasive answers.... Sam Bankman-Fried said he ...continue reading "SBF is having a tough time on the witness stand"
I know I'm a bug about adjusting things for inflation, but I still wonder: Why is it that stock market charts are never adjusted for inflation? Here's the post-pandemic S&P 500 adjusted for inflation: In nominal terms, the S&P 500 is up from 3800 to 4155 since the start of 2021. In real terms it's ...continue reading "Always adjust for inflation, stock market edition"
This is the Rodin Museum in Paris. It is practically the definition of lovely and serene, right in the heart of the city. Plus there are sculptures by Rodin all over the place!
The GDP price deflator came in at an annualized rate of 3.5% for Q3. If the PCE inflation number is close to that—which it usually is—then PCE inflation for the quarter will also come in around 3.5%. Given the numbers for July and August, this suggests that PCE inflation for September was 3.1% ± 1%. ...continue reading "PCE inflation will probably come in low tomorrow"
And the winner is.......the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast. Here is the BEA's official first print of Q3 GDP: Real GDP grew a whopping 4.9% in Q3, very close to the Atlanta Fed's 5.4% forecast. Never doubt the Atlanta Fed! I assume this presents us with the usual dilemma: Is it good news because the economy ...continue reading "GDP rises a whopping 4.9% in Q3"
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is currently predicting that Q3 GDP will come in at 5.4% growth (!). The New York Fed is at 2.5%. The "blue chip consensus" has converged on 3.5%. On Thursday morning we'll get the official number from the BEA and declare a winner.
The auto strike isn't over yet, but the Wall Street Journal reports that the UAW has reached agreement on a new contract with one of the Big Three: As part of the proposed contract, Ford has agreed to give factory workers a 25% wage increase over the life of the agreement, including a 11% bump ...continue reading "Ford agrees to 25% wage increase in new UAW deal"
In 1999 Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas bought a luxury motor home for $267,000. It was financed by a loan from his friend Anthony Welters, a health insurance millionaire. In interviews, Welters said the loan had been "satisfied" in 2008 but declined to say just what that meant. So the Senate Finance Committee subpoenaed him ...continue reading "Clarence Thomas never paid for his luxury motor home"
The judge in Donald Trump's business fraud trial called Trump to the witness stand today to ask about something he'd said during a recess: The dispute began during a break in the testimony Wednesday morning. Speaking to reporters in a hallway, Trump complained that Engoron, a Democrat, is “a very partisan judge, with a person ...continue reading "Trump fined yet again for violating gag order"
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