Kevin Drum 🕸

In good news this weekend, Poland voted to dump the anti-democratic Law and Justice Party, one of Europe's most dangerous. Like Donald Trump, Poland's current strongarm prime minister immediately announced that the election had been rigged and he was the real winner. This probably won't stand up even though virtually every branch of government has ...continue reading "In Poland, authoritarianism loses yet another battle"

The Washington Post writes today about Carlos Hoyt: The 63-year-old educational consultant and psychotherapist is part of a small but increasingly vocal group of people who favor phasing out racial categories. ....Hoyt read aloud the Census Bureau’s caveats, that “the racial categories included in the Census Questionnaire generally reflect a social definition of race recognized ...continue reading "We’re stuck with race as a description of different human groups"

I know you rely on me for the latest breaking news, so here it is: there is a prescribed burn being conducted in the Coconino National Forest south of Flagstaff. Do not report this fire. Repeat: DO NOT REPORT THIS FIRE. The US Forest Service thanks you for your cooperation.

Can Jim Jordan, the lunatic conservative endorsed by Donald Trump, become Speaker of the House after all? Jim Jordan rolled out several key endorsements in his bid for speaker on Monday, a surprising turn that has some in his party privately believing the Ohio Republican has a shot after all. ....On Friday, Jordan’s fight for ...continue reading "Can Jim Jordan win?"

Saturday was eclipse day, so today is eclipse photos day. I've got a whole series for you, in chronological order. The first picture was taken on Friday while I was scouting sites. This is Chimney Rock, a classic western rock formation, about 20 miles south of Cortez, Colorado.¹ This picture was taken at 10:30 am, ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

Donald Trump has been gagged by yet another judge: A judge imposed a limited gag order on former President Donald J. Trump on Monday, restricting Mr. Trump from making public statements attacking the witnesses, prosecutors or court staff involved in the federal criminal case in which he stands accused of conspiring to overturn the 2020 ...continue reading "Trump gagged again"

Up until 2010 merchants weren't allowed to charge extra for purchases made by credit card even though they had to pay swipe fees every time one was used. But that year the Department of Justice settled a lawsuit against the big credit card companies which put an end to this prohibition. Since then, subject to ...continue reading "It turns out merchants don’t care much about swipe fees after all"

A recent article in the Journal of Pediatrics concludes that increasing mental health problems in teens and young adults have been caused by a decline in the amount of unsupervised play time they were allowed as kids. I really want to believe this. It makes perfect sense to me that being constantly under the protection ...continue reading "Does free play among kids lead to happier adults?"

This is a rare archival photograph of Hilbert and Charlie back in Charlie's younger days. Such a cute couple.

I'm catching up on the news, and I see that Steve Scalise has dropped out of the race to replace Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House. I think this is wise, but not for political reasons. As someone who's been through chemotherapy for multiple myeloma, I know that it gets worse as it progresses. ...continue reading "It’s time for Republicans to ask for Democratic help"

Yes, I'm traveling this week. Here's where I stopped for the night. Can you identify the city? UPDATE: leszekmp got it right: it's Flagstaff, Arizona, taken from an overlook on the road up to Lowell Observatory. We stopped in Flagstaff on our way to Durango, Colorado, where (a) we have friends, and (b) I will ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

After last month's big spike—mostly due to gasoline prices—inflation settled down a bit in September: But the news was mixed: CPI was down but core CPI edged up. That's both surprising and unwelcome.

Alex Tabarrok agrees that the "deaths of despair" narrative has been oversold. But he's not ready to give it up completely: I wouldn’t, however, throw out despair as an organizing principle. The evidence on “despair” goes beyond death to include a host of co-morbidities such as mental stress, marriage rates, labor force participation rates and ...continue reading "“Despair” doesn’t seem to have increased this century"

This is an LBB, a little brown bird. There's nothing special about him except for excellent lighting and exceptional sharpness. So he is your bird of the day.

Travel day today. I'm calling a lid.

Prosecutors in the case of Donald Trump's effort to overturn the 2020 election want to know if he plans to blame poor advice from his attorneys. But why do they care? The New York Times explains: Defendants who pursue advice of counsel arguments waive the shield of attorney-client privilege that would normally protect their dealings ...continue reading "Will Trump blame his lawyers for advising him to overturn the 2020 election?"

Matt Yglesias takes on the "Deaths of Despair" meme today. It originates with Anne Case and Angus Deaton, who wrote about it a few years ago, and, as Matt points out, it's somehow survived despite a series of statistical examinations that have left it in tatters. If you adjust for age, it becomes less dramatic. ...continue reading "Are “deaths of despair” really just about deaths from Oxy?"

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast continues to suggest that the economy was red hot in Q3: Their forecast of 5.1% growth is largely based on increases in consumer spending (2.5%) and net exports (1%). Those subcomponents are indeed looking good so far: The trade deficit is on track to be $20+ billion better than in ...continue reading "Third quarter GDP remains a very big mystery"

On Sunday night I decided to try again photographing our old friend the Wizard Nebula. This time I changed two things. First, I went up to Palomar Mountain instead of out to the desert. The sky there isn't as dark, but Palomar's 5,000-foot elevation provides clearer skies and cooler weather. Second, I used a 7 ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

A few days ago Benjamin Wallace-Wells interviewed Michael Mina, an immunologist and epidemiologist who argues that COVID-19 is a "textbook virus": the more times you're exposed the more protection you'll have. He's frustrated that we didn't acknowledge this from the start: This is a very different story about immunity than we were told through most ...continue reading "Get vaccinated! Again."