Kevin Drum 🕸

The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have been attacking Western shipping in the Red Sea. Over at National Review, Charles Cooke says we need to teach them a lesson: We’re trying to get on with our lives peacefully, and they’re interrupting it. And if the consequence of us dealing with it is that they escalate it, ...continue reading "Should we declare all-out war on the Houthis?"

Yesterday Paul Krugman mentioned that over the past couple of years the economy has been especially strong for Black workers. That's true, and the effect has been pretty dramatic. Here's the labor force participation rate, a measure of how many people are working or actively looking for work: For many years, the share of Black ...continue reading "Raw data: Black men in the labor force"

Today I have some good news, some bad news, some good news, and some bad news for you. The good news is that we've reached agreement on a bill that would modestly raise the Child Tax Credit. The bad news is that—of course—Republicans have only agreed to this if it's offset with yet another tax ...continue reading "The Child Tax Credit might be back. But probably not."

This is a rock formation in Colorado called Elephant's Feet. It's pretty obvious to see why, but there are only two of them. Are they the front feet or the back feet?

A perennial favorite of presidential campaigns is the "Rose Garden Strategy." But there are others. Harry Truman adopted a "Whistlestop Strategy" in his 1948 campaign. Richard Nixon was the first to pursue a "50 State Strategy" in 1960. During the COVID pandemic, Joe Biden pioneered the "Basement Strategy." But this year brings something truly new. ...continue reading "Donald Trump announces new 2024 campaign strategy"

In the seminal Heller case, the Supreme Court ruled that the Second Amendment protects an individual right to bear arms. However, Justice Antonin Scalia warned that the right wasn't unlimited: Like most rights, the right secured by the Second Amendment is not unlimited.... Nothing in our opinion should be taken to cast doubt on longstanding ...continue reading "Court rules that guns in the post office are A-OK"

The Supreme Court will be hearing a couple of cases soon that have the potential of undermining something called "Chevron deference." This does not mean we are supposed to pay special attention to Chevron Oil. It refers to a 1984 Supreme Court case that says courts should allow federal agencies to make any reasonable interpretation ...continue reading "Conservatives are taking yet another shot at expertise"

Rick Hasen echoes an opinion today that I've shared for a very long time: Unlike the constitutions of many other advanced democracies, the U.S. Constitution contains no affirmative right to vote.... As we enter yet another fraught election season, it’s easy to miss that many of the problems we have with voting and elections in ...continue reading "Why does the US lack a right to vote?"

Finally, for what it's worth, here's the actual state of the economy in the final quarter of 2023 compared to 2022. I feel like I should hardly need to say this, but everything that should be adjusted for inflation has been. Real GDP growth: 4.9% Unemployment rate: 3.7% Inflation (CPI): 3.2% Inflation (CPI change from ...continue reading "2023 was an all-time great year for the economy"

As long as we're at it, here's what else Republicans think about the economy these days: 58% think the overall economy is poor (vs. 14% for Democrats) 62% think the economy is getting worse (vs. 22% for Democrats) 53% say they are worse off than last year (vs. 18% for Democrats) 50% say they've heard ...continue reading "Here’s what Republicans think of the economy"

I was fooling around with the latest YouGov/Economist poll and marveling anew at how bad Republicans think the economy is. But the most spectacular finding is surely this: 68% of Republicans think unemployment is a serious problem in the US. The unemployment rate last month was 3.7%. It's been under 4% for 24 straight months. ...continue reading "The unemployment rate in 2023 was the lowest in half a century"

A boy and his pail at the beach.

How are our young people doing these days. Are they still stuck in low-paying jobs that require side hustles to make ends meet? Let's take a look. For the entire past decade, the wages of young people have been going up, the ratio of part-time workers has been steadily decreasing, and the number with multiple ...continue reading "Raw data: Wages and employment of the young"

"Global health security" is a measure of how well a country's public health system is prepared to deal with pandemics and infectious diseases generally. Can you guess which country is ranked #1? The US is first by a comfortable margin. In the subcategory dedicated to having a strong public health sector to treat the sick, ...continue reading "The US has the best public health system in the world"

California law says that drivers have to retake the DMV test when they turn 70. Fine. But the test questions have become crazy. They're completely divorced from knowledge of meaningful traffic laws and instead focus on weird trivia. As a result, we've had an endless stream of 70-year-olds wailing about how they've failed the test ...continue reading "Our long California DMV nightmare is over"

Here is Peggy Noonan a couple of days ago: Deep down a lot of hard-core Trump supporters, and many not so hard-core, think it’s all over. They love America truly and deeply but think the glue that held us together is gone. Religion and Main Street are shrinking into the past, and in the Rite ...continue reading "Is the world really all that scary?"

A father writes to "Ask Amy" today about his daughter, who deliberately smashed her cell phone in hopes of getting a new one. What should he do? Here is Amy's answer: Unless you have purchased insurance, replacing this broken phone could be a very expensive proposition (insurance is also expensive, and there is a deductible ...continue reading "Ask Kevin: What should you do about a daughter who smashes her cell phone?"

According to the FBI, here are the number of children in elementary and high schools who are killed each year in active shooter incidents: Since 2000, an average of five children have been killed each year. The trendline since 2005 has gone up from five per year to seven per year.

Good news! When it comes to surgeons leaving random crap in your body after they've sewn you up, the United States has the lowest rate among all rich nations.¹ We're #1! ¹All the rich nations that happen to be part of the Peterson-KFF health system tracker, anyway.

The spittle flecked anger from conservatives over increased IRS funding to catch rich tax cheats never ceases to astonish me. I can understand this kind of anger over big hot-button subjects like abortion or the border, but IRS funding? Here is Dominic Pino in National Review, who is apoplectic over Biden's recent announcement that the ...continue reading "Republicans are furious that the IRS is already collecting more money from rich tax cheats"