Kevin Drum 🕸

While I was puttering around in the GSS data for my previous post, I happened to take a look at self-reported political ideology. In particular, I looked at how many Republicans described themselves as conservative and how many Democrats described themselves as liberal. Here it is: Republicans have been growing steadily more conservative for 50 ...continue reading "Democrats have gotten a lot more liberal recently"

According to the General Social Survey, here's the trend in people reporting that they aren't very happy: I struggle to reconcile this with reports that young people are depressed, stressed out, and generally kind of miserable. From 1970 through 2018, there was very little change in young adults reporting that they aren't happy. It bounces ...continue reading "Raw data: Young adult aren’t especially unhappy these days"

From Kevin McCarthy at a closed-door meeting of the Republican caucus, daring hard-right loonies to oust him: You guys think I’m scared of a motion to vacate. Go f---ing ahead and do it. I’m not scared. You tell 'em, Kevin.

The Wall Street Journal says oil prices are "soaring": Hmmm. Here is the spot price of West Texas Intermediate since the beginning of the year: It's up about 10%, from $77 to $87. The Journal got its much larger number by (a) using the NYMEX future price, and (b) cherry picking the start of the ...continue reading "Oil prices are up, but not yet “soaring”"

It appears to be a thing lately for CEOs to blurt out their frustration over the fact that their workers want raises. "Nobody wants to work anymore" is the usual refrain. Or, since unemployment is demonstrably low, perhaps they admit that people are working, they just aren't working very hard. But it ain't true: Productivity ...continue reading "Labor productivity is very high these days"

The August spike in inflation was obviously bad news, but there's a bit of positive news in today's figures too: Inflation in goods has been below 2% for the entire past year, and last month's spike was the result of a transitory rise in gasoline prices. Nothing much to worry about. But inflation in services ...continue reading "A tidbit of good news about inflation"

This is our nation's Capitol, where every day our elected representatives undertake their solemn duty to advance the public weal. It brings a flutter to your heart, doesn't it? At the time I was there, the Capitol building was covered in scaffolding. This angle, along with the intervening flora, is a clever way of taking ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

Over at National Review, Charles Cooke approvingly cites this passage from a recent David Ignatius column about Joe Biden: He should have stopped his son Hunter from joining the board of a Ukrainian gas company and representing companies in China — and he certainly should have resisted Hunter’s attempts to impress clients by getting Dad ...continue reading "High crimes and misdemeanors"

Adjusted for inflation, hourly earnings declined at an annual rate of 5.3% in August. However, the average number of hours worked rose, so weekly earnings were down only 1.2%. Weekly earnings are now 0.3% above their pre-pandemic level. For blue-collar workers, hourly earnings were down 4.9% and weekly earnings were down 1.5%.

August CPI numbers were released this morning, and both the core and headline rates spiked considerably: The spike in the headline rate was expected due to rising gasoline prices, but the spike in the core rate is harder to explain. Air fares were up a lot, but there were no big increases elsewhere. The so-called ...continue reading "CPI shoots up in August"

I don't quite remember what got me started on this, but a couple of hours ago I ran into a report about stress from the American Psychological Association. It reported that stress was simply overwhelming these days: A quarter of all Americans report feeling so stressed on most days that "they can barely function." Among ...continue reading "Are most young women “overwhelmed” by stress? I’m skeptical."

OMG OMG OMG: On Wednesday, Apple revealed that its newest product line, the iPhone 15, will drop the company’s proprietary Lightning port in favor of European-mandated USB-C ports. The company’s newest iPhones feature a charging plug that is slightly bigger and rounder than its predecessor but capable of delivering a faster charge. Is there any ...continue reading "Apple announces connector change"

Rep. Scott Perry, chair of the Freedom Caucus and one of the primary players in Donald Trump’s attempt to overturn the election, took questions today about the House impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden. He got red faced when a reporter had the gall to ask what "actual evidence" Republicans had, as opposed to mere allegations: ...continue reading "Scott Perry explains impeachment"

The Census Bureau released poverty figures for 2022 today: The official poverty rate is based solely on family income. It declined continuously during the 2014-19 economic expansion, and since then has been about flat. The current official poverty rate is 11.5%, slightly down from last year. The Supplemental Poverty Rate is a better measure that ...continue reading "Measured correctly, poverty was up 60% in 2022"

This is no ordinary blackbird. This is a French blackbird. Round up 23 more of them and you can make a pie.

I suppose this is hardly unexpected, but even so: Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday directed top congressional Republicans to open an impeachment inquiry into President Biden, blowing past G.O.P. divisions as he worked to appease far-right lawmakers who have threatened to oust him amid a pitched fight over spending. Mr. McCarthy said he would task ...continue reading "As expected, Republicans open pointless impeachment inquiry"

The Washington Post says that counties with the highest level of legal opioid use from 2006-2013 (i.e., oxycontin) now have the highest level of fentanyl overdoses: According to the Post, "The data confirms what’s long been known about the arc of the nation’s addiction crisis: Users first got hooked by pain pills saturating the nation, ...continue reading "Did the oxy crackdown lead to the fentanyl crisis?"

"Employer costs for employee compensation" is yet another estimate of worker pay from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It's based on a quarterly survey of 35,000 observations from 8,500 establishments. For some reason, federal workers aren't included. Here are results through the second quarter of 2023, adjusted for inflation: In addition to wages, total comp ...continue reading "Chart of the day: Employee compensation declined 2.7% in Q2"

Here's a chart of PCE core inflation since 2021: The dashed red line is three months after the American Rescue Plan was passed. This is the absolute earliest it could have affected inflation, and by then the inflation rate had already spiked from 2% to 7%. It's really not plausible that ARP could have caused ...continue reading "Raw data: Inflation since 2021"

Here's yet more evidence of what happens to people who marinate in Fox News, Donald Trump, talk radio, and the Wall Street Journal editorial page. They go cuckoo: Republican voters are increasingly anxious about COVID amid a swirl of unfounded claims on the right that the federal government is preparing a mass reimposition of restrictions. ...continue reading "Worst. Campaign. Strategy. Ever."