Kevin Drum 🕸

This is a pair of sculptures by Fred Eversley in the Orange County Museum of Art. Eversley, originally an engineer, did most of his work in Venice (California), though he now lives in New York. He is, according to the David Kordansky Gallery, "a key figure in the development of contemporary art from Los Angeles ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

My doctors have been insistent that if I spike a fever above 100.4 I should get myself down the ER. Last night that happened—though just barely. The ER thermometer clocked me at 100.6, and that set off a truly impressive blitzkrieg of testing. I didn't really understand it. They took blood tests by the dozens; ...continue reading "Health update"

I had a bit of insomnia last night and produced this fine reenactment of old-school blogging: This chart shows the change in federal spending during every postwar administration.¹ For example, Eisenhower's first budget clocked in at 18.14% of GDP while his final budget set spending at 17.38% of GDP. So over the course of his ...continue reading "Raw data: Who cuts spending more, Democrats or Republicans?"

In the New York Times Magazine this weekend David Wallace-Wells has an interview with Dr. Anthony Fauci. I knew David a little bit when I was at the Washington Monthly and I've followed him with admiration ever since, so I was surprised at how combative the interview was. In one sense, David was just asking ...continue reading "Two takeaways from an interview with Dr. Fauci"

My doctor was happy to see me today because apparently I'm one of his few CAR-T patients who's currently lucid. The others are staring blankly at the ceiling and trying to remember who the president is. But I'm not out of the woods yet. If I start posting charts of, say, oatmeal consumption vs. AAA ...continue reading "Mental health update"

Today I learned that archeologists recently dug up the bodies of some soldiers who died in the Battle of Camden in 1780: The battleground remains have been determined to belong to 12 Continental soldiers, one British loyalist and one British regular. Thirteen were honored as heroes in ceremonies planned by countless volunteers, both civilian and ...continue reading "Weren’t redcoats the bad guys?"

I'm not sure why this amuses me so much, but it does: This is from a study comparing human doctors to GPT 3.5. The methodology was sort of fascinating: the authors collected 195 questions and responses from real doctors on Reddit and then fed the exact same questions into the chatbot. Then they jumbled up ...continue reading "Health care pros prefer AI to human doctors"

Exciting news today: the Fed has released its report on the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. You're already salivating, aren't you? I've read through it, but I want to say up front that it presents me with a problem. I've taken a very public stance that SVB didn't really do anything seriously wrong, and this ...continue reading "Federal Reserve fires a blank at Silicon Valley Bank"

This is Charlie in our Australian willow tree, probably watching for the squirrels that zip up and down it all the time. As you can see from the look of the bark, it's an excellent climbing tree for any cat with even a hint of athleticism. Charlie has that. Hilbert doesn't.

Wages are up! This time I have to concede that there is indeed upward movement in total compensation. Real comp is still negative over the past year, but it's been positive for two quarters in a row now. Apparently this means the Fed is certain to raise rates yet again at its next meeting. Considering ...continue reading "Total compensation rose slightly in the first quarter"

Both core and headline PCE inflation were down in March: Headline PCE was way down in March, and even on a trendline basis was only barely above 2%. Core inflation was more stubborn, coming down to only 3.4% and remaining around 4% on a trendline basis. (On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation was 4.2% and ...continue reading "PCE inflation drops sharply in March"

The macroeconomic dynamic duo of Christina Romer and David Romer has a new paper out. It starts with a question: This paper revisits one of the fundamental questions of macroeconomics: Does monetary policy matter? I didn't even realize this was an open issue. Luckily, the answer is "yes," and R&R go on to estimate the ...continue reading "Has the Fed affected inflation yet?"

This is a little waterfall just off Angeles Crest Highway about halfway to Mount Wilson. I'd like to return to this spot, as well as to Colby Falls, when the spring runoff is heavy, but I have a feeling I won't be up to driving soon enough. Maybe next year.

As I was puttering around the BEA's release of GDP data, I noticed that it included the most recent PCE inflation indexes too. However, it's quarterly, not monthly, so we have to wait until tomorrow for the March numbers. Or do we? If we know the quarterly indexes from last year and the quarterly growth ...continue reading "Placeholder inflation forecasting post"

The first-quarter GDP number was released today, and it's not great: The Q1 number clocked in at 1.1%, which is pretty anemic. Unfortunately, I can't think of any good reason why this should improve next quarter, when the Fed's interest rate hikes are going to start kicking in and personal savings will be even further ...continue reading "First quarter GDP grew at an anemic rate"

Everything is fine. I show up at the hospital each morning for blood tests and a couple of hours of hydration. Then I spend the rest of the day in our hotel room watching The Wire—which I can finally do because my cable company recently offered to cut my bill $12 per month if I ...continue reading "Health update"

As an experienced political pundit I'd like to share my insights into the upcoming presidential election. Here's what the bulk of the evidence tells us: maybe Joe Biden will win. Or maybe it will be Donald Trump. Either one of them could win! Or maybe even someone else, though that's unlikely. It's all going to ...continue reading "A deep dive into the 2024 election"

Here's a lovely little cardinal that I photographed last year in my sister-in-law's backyard. I would like to get a picture of a cardinal in the wild someday, but so far they've been too quick for me.

Thank God Disney is finally doing what it should have done months ago: Walt Disney Co. sued Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis after a new board he named to oversee the district housing the company’s Orlando-area theme parks declared null and void agreements Disney struck in February. The lawsuit accuses Mr. DeSantis of conducting a “targeted ...continue reading "Finally, Disney sues DeSantis"

The Washington Post reports that San Francisco is jammed to the gills with driverless cars these days: Automated cars, programmed to follow traffic rules, are a relief for some residents. Andrew Harding doesn’t own a car and commutes almost entirely by bike and public transportation. He moved with his family to San Francisco from Atlanta ...continue reading "San Francisco is full of driverless cars that are working fine"