Kevin Drum 🕸

Paul Krugman says that signs are good for a soft landing even though the Fed has hiked short-term interest rates sharply and long-term rates have followed right along: If you had told me two years ago that interest rates would soar like this, I would have predicted a nasty recession with spiking unemployment. But in ...continue reading "Can the economy continue to shrug off high interest rates?"

When Robin Sipes went in to see her pulmonologist, he gave her some instructions: That's my kind of doctor! In case you're wondering what set this off, Sipes recently lost her cat and was feeling sad. She's known her pulmonologist, Earl King, for 15 years, and he felt that getting a new cat was the ...continue reading "Medical advice of the day: Get a cat"

Here's an interesting poll from NPR/Marist: The topline numbers don't mean much at this point, but what's interesting is that when the pollsters added RFK Jr. to the mix he took nine points from Trump and only five points from Biden. Apparently both Trump and RFK Jr. appeal to the folks who want to set ...continue reading "RFK Jr. takes more votes from Trump than Biden"

If you bought long-dated treasury bonds in 2020, when interest rates were low, you've lost a ton of money: That's quite a crash in only a few years. But who wants to buy an old bond yielding 1% when you can buy a shiny new 20-year bond today that yields 5%?

Jim Jordan has already lost five votes and the roll call is only through the Ds, so he's not going to be elected Speaker of the House today. Better luck tomorrow, Jim. UPDATE: Jordan won only 199 votes today, less than the 200 he won yesterday. Things are not improving for Jim Jordan.

Here's a brief little timeline of Donald Trump's recent cognitive decline: September 16: Says you need ID to buy a loaf of bread. (No you don't.) September 18: Claims that under Biden, we would be in World War II. (World War II already happened.) September 18: Says he beat Obama in 2016. (He beat Hillary ...continue reading "Donald Trump is showing strong signs of dementia"

David Leonhardt complains today that planes, trains, and automobiles aren't any faster than they were half a century ago. Fair enough. That's true. But then he adds this about a typical person taking a cross-country flight: They leave their homes several hours before their plane is scheduled to depart. Many sit in traffic on their ...continue reading "The US is not in decline"

Vox points me today to an an interesting fact: the number of retractions in academic journals has skyrocketed over the past two decades. However, since the total number of journal articles has also skyrocketed¹ I adjusted the raw numbers to show the percentage of articles retracted: Even accounting for the growth in journal articles, the ...continue reading "Chart of the day: Lots of journal articles are being retracted these days"

This is a gargoyle hanging outside Sacré Couer in Paris.

Now we're talking. Stanford University neurobiologist Robert Sapolsky says free will is a myth: After more than 40 years studying humans and other primates, Sapolsky has reached the conclusion that virtually all human behavior is as far beyond our conscious control as the convulsions of a seizure, the division of cells or the beating of ...continue reading "Free will is mankind’s biggest myth"

As I write this there are already nine Republican votes against Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House. He can only afford to lose four, so it looks like he's not going to win on this round, at least. UPDATE: Yep, he lost, receiving only 200 votes out of the 217 he needed. Tough luck, ...continue reading "Jim Jordan losing vote for Speaker of the House"

Consumers are splurging, says the Wall Street Journal. Retail sales were up 0.7% in September, an annualized rate of 8.9%. Shazam! But you might recall that inflation was high in September. If you adjust for that the annualized increase is only 3.9%. And if you compare retail sales to a year ago, the annual increase ...continue reading "Retail sales were flat in September"

Paul Krugman has an odd column today. He says that America is as powerful economically as ever and that Joe Biden has conducted a strong foreign policy. Nevertheless: Serious students of international affairs are noting that the world seems to be becoming more dangerous, with many local cold wars turning hot, and suggesting that we ...continue reading "Pax Americana isn’t declining. It never existed."

In good news this weekend, Poland voted to dump the anti-democratic Law and Justice Party, one of Europe's most dangerous. Like Donald Trump, Poland's current strongarm prime minister immediately announced that the election had been rigged and he was the real winner. This probably won't stand up even though virtually every branch of government has ...continue reading "In Poland, authoritarianism loses yet another battle"

The Washington Post writes today about Carlos Hoyt: The 63-year-old educational consultant and psychotherapist is part of a small but increasingly vocal group of people who favor phasing out racial categories. ....Hoyt read aloud the Census Bureau’s caveats, that “the racial categories included in the Census Questionnaire generally reflect a social definition of race recognized ...continue reading "We’re stuck with race as a description of different human groups"

I know you rely on me for the latest breaking news, so here it is: there is a prescribed burn being conducted in the Coconino National Forest south of Flagstaff. Do not report this fire. Repeat: DO NOT REPORT THIS FIRE. The US Forest Service thanks you for your cooperation.

Can Jim Jordan, the lunatic conservative endorsed by Donald Trump, become Speaker of the House after all? Jim Jordan rolled out several key endorsements in his bid for speaker on Monday, a surprising turn that has some in his party privately believing the Ohio Republican has a shot after all. ....On Friday, Jordan’s fight for ...continue reading "Can Jim Jordan win?"

Saturday was eclipse day, so today is eclipse photos day. I've got a whole series for you, in chronological order. The first picture was taken on Friday while I was scouting sites. This is Chimney Rock, a classic western rock formation, about 20 miles south of Cortez, Colorado.¹ This picture was taken at 10:30 am, ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

Donald Trump has been gagged by yet another judge: A judge imposed a limited gag order on former President Donald J. Trump on Monday, restricting Mr. Trump from making public statements attacking the witnesses, prosecutors or court staff involved in the federal criminal case in which he stands accused of conspiring to overturn the 2020 ...continue reading "Trump gagged again"

Up until 2010 merchants weren't allowed to charge extra for purchases made by credit card even though they had to pay swipe fees every time one was used. But that year the Department of Justice settled a lawsuit against the big credit card companies which put an end to this prohibition. Since then, subject to ...continue reading "It turns out merchants don’t care much about swipe fees after all"